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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 025
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Fri 02 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
TALAS (15W) weakens to a Tropical Storm as it inches closer to the Southern Coast of Shikoku & Western Honshu...landfall expected late tonight.
Residents and visitors along Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri September 02 2011
Location of Center: 31.7º N Lat 134.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 221 km SSE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 2: 238 km SSW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 3: 286 km SSW of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 4: 338 km SSE of Okayama, Japan
Distance 5: 418 km SSW of Kyoto, Japan
Distance 6: 353 km SSE of Hiroshima, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Western Honshu Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 230 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM JST Fri Sep 02
TALAS (15W) is expected move toward the North during the next 12 to 24 hours, with a turn towards the NNE through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will make landfall in Southern Shikoku, Japan late tonight and then move across Western Honshu Saturday. TALAS will be along the central part of Japan Sea by Sunday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Moving Northward...just along the NW Coast of Honshu as it continues to lose strength...about 189 km North of Okayama, Japan [5PM SEP 03: 36.4N 133.8E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Over the Sea of Japan...accelerating NNE-ward...about 536 km NNW of Niigata, Japan [2PM SEP 04: 42.1N 135.9E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) have decreased to near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. TALAS will continue to lose strength after it reaches the coast of Southeastern Shikoku late tonight.
Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to cloudy skies with a passing showers, rains or squalls w/ thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
TALAS' (15W) large radial circulation remains intact with a very large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE-LIKE CENTER - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Shikoku, Kyushu & Honshu. Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Japan & the Sea of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 230 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to cloudy skies with a passing showers, rains or squalls w/ thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 02 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 31.2N 134.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 020531Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE ANNULUS,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM DIAMETER, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
BROADLY INTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). JAPAN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER WESTERN JAPAN WITH COASTAL STATIONS REPORTING
30-40 KNOT WINDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER
THE EAST SEA. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION,
WHICH IS BASED ON THE CENTROID OF MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY WITHIN THE ANNULUS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. TS 15W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INTO THE
WEAKNESS EVIDENT ON THE 02/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS. FOR THE MOST PART,
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE RE-
CURVE SCENARIO AND EARLIER MODEL PROBLEMS WITH ERRONEOUS POLEWARD
TRACKS HAVE DISAPPEARED. NOGAPS, GFDN AND GFS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD SCENARIO AND SHOW SLOW OR ERRATIC
TRACKS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, UKMO AND
JGSM MODELS IN ACCLERATING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EAST SEA. TS 15W IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 24 AND SHOULD
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 WITH THE MODELS INDICATING A CLEAR FRONTAL
SIGNATURE IN THE 1000/500 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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