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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 30 July 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #020/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MUIFA (KABAYAN) rapidly strengthens into a Category 2 Typhoon...resumes its NNW motion. This cyclone will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat in Tagalog) and bring occasional to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms across Western Visayas & Western Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro & Northern Palawan.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, the Southern Islands of Japan & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat July 30 2011
Location of Small Eye: 16.5º N Lat 132.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 980 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,080 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1,140 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,195 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1,270 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 1,220 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,225 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 8: 1,500 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (West of center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Sat July 30
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying as it tracks more Northward over the Northern Philippine Sea through the next 24 to 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Resumes its Northward motion across the North Philippine Sea...about 1,115 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM JUL 31: 17.4N 132.9E @ 175kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Attains Category 3 strength while maintaining its slow northerly track...about 1,200 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM JUL 31: 18.5N 133.1E @ 195kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify, nears Category 4 strength...about 1,185 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 01: 19.5N 133.3E @ 205kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Category 4 strength...about 1,225 km East of Itbayat, Batanes [2PM AUG 01: 20.6N 133.6E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers (30 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles). MUIFA is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its Category 4 strength as it starts turning NW towards Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands [2PM AUG 02: 22.8N 133.7E @ 215kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 3 while exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), turns more to the left (WNW) in the direction of Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands [2PM AUG 03: 25.0N 132.6E @ 195kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands...continues to weaken [2PM AUG 04: 26.5N 130.7E @ 185kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & WESTERN VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation is now showing a 11-km. diameter eye surrounded with an intense eyewall. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
SMALL EYE (11-km in diameter) - over water (off the North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (off the North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & WESTERN VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 30 JULY POSITION: 16.2N 133.0E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 670 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFIED WITHIN THE PAST 6
HOURS AS IT DEVELOPED A 6NM EYE AND CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN
FROM THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 80 TO 90 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW INTO A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER,
OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON THAT SIDE. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT ALTHOUGH THE DOMINANT DEEP-LAYER STEERING
RIDGE IS CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST STRENGTHENS. AFTER TAU
72, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BUILD IN AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ALLOW 11W TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UNDER A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC). AROUND
TAU 96 OHC WILL DROP OFF AND CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
THIS FORECAST FAVORS A SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH
ECMWF, UKMO AND NOGAPS. GFDN AND GFS ARE THE EASTERN
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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