for Saturday, 16 July 2011 [8:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
MAJOR TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 16 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #018
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MA-ON (08W) weakens into a Category 3 cyclone as it enters an area of unfavorable environment...will regain intensity within the next 12 to 24 hours. This howler is now a major threat to Japan.
Residents and visitors along the southern coast of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat July 16 2011
Location of Eye: 21.0º N Lat 139.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 425 km (230 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 480 km (260 nm) SW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1300 km (702 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1780 km (960 nm) ENE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Honshu Area
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Early AM [1-2AM JST]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1205 km (650 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 AM JST Sat July 16
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to turn gradually WNW to NW-ward and will re-intensify for the 24 to 48 hours. It shall be near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) by early tomorrow morning (July 17). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SAT): Regains Category 4 status, turns WNW...about 1165 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUL 16: 21.4N 137.8E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Strenghens to near-Super Typhoon strength as it turns NW-ward...prepares to enter the northeastern corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 965 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUL 17: 22.4N 136.2E @ 230kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Maintains its near-Super Typhoon strength...enters the PAR on a NNW track...about 770 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUL 17: 23.9N 134.9E @ 230kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: No change in strength as it exits the PAR...turns Northward...about 605 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUL 18: 25.7N 133.8E @ 230kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will reintensify through the next 12 to 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to decay as it begins recurving to the NE...approaching the coastal areas of Southern Japan (Kyushu-Shikoku-Honshu) [2AM JUL 19: 29.3N 133.1E @ 215kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3 as it begins Extratropical transition...just along the coast of Shikoku-Southern Honshu Area [2AM JUL 20: 32.7N 134.9E @ 195kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall just south of Tokyo, Japan as a Category 2 system...nears Extratropical status [2AM JUL 21: 35.1N 139.9E @ 175kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation is currently displaying a 28-km irregular eye w/ strong eyewall convection especially along the Northern, Eastern, & SE portion. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
IRREGULAR EYE (28-KM) - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 330 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 16 JULY POSITION: 20.8N 139.6E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM SOUTH OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EYEWALL
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE RAPIDLY WITH LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN
OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. CURRENT IMAGERY DEPICTS A 15 NM
IRREGULAR EYE SURROUNDED BY A NEAR-COMPLETE EYEWALL WITH A BREAK
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. TY 08W REMAINS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON THE
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KNOTS BASED
ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD ALTHOUGH THE 1701Z IMAGE INDICATES A DVORAK OF
115 KNOTS. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY INFLUENCING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W WITH FUJIWARA CLEARLY INDICATED,
HOWEVER, THIS INTERACTION IS LARGELY ONE-WAY. THERE IS LITTLE
EVIDENCE THAT TD 09W IS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF TY 08W BEYOND A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED. TY 08W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
BUT IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT
ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO RE-
CURVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAPAN AND TRACK EASTWARD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE UKMET MODEL WHICH INDICATES LANDFALL OVER KYUSHU. THIS FORECAST
IS POSITIONED EAST AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
LACK OF A STRONG MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND STRONG VWS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 80-100 KNOT INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS NEAR TOKYO.
LAND INTERACTION REMAINS THE PRIMARY WEAKENING MECHANISM AT THE
EXTENDED TAUS, THEREFORE, ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK POLEWARD WILL
RESULT IN A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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