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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 260 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
SUPER TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 31 July 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #022/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
After 12 hours of continued rapid intensification, MUIFA (KABAYAN) has been upgraded to a Category 5 Super Typhoon with 1-minute sustained winds of 260 km/hr...almost stationary over the North Philippine Sea. This powerful cyclone will enhance & pull the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat in Tagalog) together with the weak low pressure (97W) located west of Ilocos Sur...bringing occasional to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms across Western Visayas & Western Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro & Northern Palawan for the next few days.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, the Southern Islands of Japan & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat July 30 2011
Location of Pinhole Eye: 16.7º N Lat 132.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 950 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,045 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1,100 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,150 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1,240 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 1,175 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,190 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 8: 1,450 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 260 kph (140 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 315 kph (170 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (West of center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 918 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sun July 31
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying, reaching a projected whooping wind speed of 290 km/hr tomorrow. This howler will resume its northward motion for the next 2 days, as it initiates an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SUN): Resumes its slow northward movement across the North Philippine Sea...still intensifying...about 1,060 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2PM JUL 31: 17.5N 132.4E @ 270kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Maintains its Category 5 status as it strengthens slightly...still moving north slowly...about 1,150 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2AM AUG 01: 18.5N 132.6E @ 280kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON: Reaches its peak strength as it tracks northward...about 1,135 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 01: 19.5N 132.8E @ 290kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken but still at Category 5...no change on its Northerly track...about 1,135 km East of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM AUG 02: 20.7N 132.7E @ 270kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 260 km/hr (140 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 5 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale, an extremely catastrophic cyclone. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 4 at Super Typhoon threshold...starts turning NW towards Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands [2AM AUG 03: 23.1N 131.3E @ 240kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Remains at Category 4, but no longer Super...exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it turns more to the left (WNW)...approaching Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands [2AM AUG 04: 24.8N 129.7E @ 220kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: In the vicinity of Okinawa...maintaining its Category 4 strength [2AM AUG 05: 26.2N 127.8E @ 220kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation is now an impressive Super Typhoon...showing a tight-pinhole 20-km. eye surrounded by a very intense eyewall. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
PINHOLE EYE (20-KM DIAMETER) - over water (off the North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (off the North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
A weak Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) has developed to the west of Ilocos Sur...likely to follow MUIFA. The center was located near lat 17.8N lon 118.5E...about 200 km West of Vigan City...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center...almost stationary. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is at 20% [Low]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this cyclone.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 31 JULY POSITION: 16.6N 132.4E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY MUIFA IS APPROACHING THE
END OF A 12 HOUR EPISODE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPECCABLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
BEAUTIFUL SYMMETRY AND A TIGHT PINHOLE 11 NM EYE. A 301718Z AMSRE
IMAGE PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF THE INTENSITY AND SYMMETRY
IN THE EYEWALL. IT ALSO SHOWS NO SIGN OF A SECONDARY, OUTER EYEWALL
FORMING, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A BRAKING MECHANISM TO THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE. EYE TEMPERATURES HAVE MOVED INTO POSITIVE
TERRITORY, RESULTING IN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM
RJTD AND KNES AND 6.0 (90) KNOTS FROM RJTD. THE SPECTACULAR
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 300000Z AND NOW WAS FACILITATED BY THE
PILING ON OF DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO AN ALREADY WELL-DEVELOPED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH HAD BEEN PRESENT SINCE THE GENITIVE
STAGES. UNTIL YESTERDAY, SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAD BEEN IMPEDING POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT YESTERDAY, IMPINGEMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT EASED. THEN
NEAR 300000Z, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL OPENED UP
WHILE ANOTHER CHANNEL DEVELOPED TO THE EAST, INTO THE EQUATORWARD
SIDE OF THE TUTT. SSTY 11W NOW HAS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT ABOVE
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND EXCELLENT EXHAUST IN ALL
QUADRANTS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NO MORE THAN 5 KNOTS. THE TUTT
CELL HAS RETROGRADED WESTWARD AND IS NOW NEAR TAIWAN AND OPENING ON
THE STORM, WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND
BRING A RETURN TO A SLOWER, MORE STEADY RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. STY
11W IS ON A POLEWARD TRACK IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. A
BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN HIGH, WHICH HAS BEEN
DISPLACED ALL THE WAY TO THE DATELINE. A WEAK PUSH IS BEING PROVIDED
ON THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BY AN ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AS STY 11W CLEARS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE, IT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST OF NORTH, WHICH WILL RESULT
IN SLOW, ERRATIC MOVEMENT ALONG A NET NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH
TAU 42. AT THAT POINT (WHICH WILL COME NEAR THE 20TH LATITUDE), THE
RETROGRADING BONIN HIGH WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE STORM TO
BECOME THE STEERING FORCE, WHICH WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
THE SLOW RETROGRADE OF THE BONIN HIGH WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST. WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN, GUIDANCE ZEROS IN ON A
TRACK CLOSE TO OKINAWA. THE INTENSITY TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE A SLOW
AND STEADY UP TO THE POINT OF THE WESTWARD TURN, AND THEN A SLOW
DECLINE THEREAFTER. THE DECLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE A FUNCTION OF
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT RATHER THAN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
HIGH, THE DEPTH OF THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM DECREASES BY NEARLY 50 PER
CENT NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
STAYS WITH BOTH CONSENSUS AND ECMWF THROUGH TAU 72, AS THEY ARE IN
NEAR EXACT AGREEMENT. AFTER TAU 72, THE TWO DIVERGE, WITH THE ECMWF
VORTEX TRACKER STEERING THE STORM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, WHILE CONSENSUS
STRIKES THE NORTHERN TIP OF OKINAWA. CONSENSUS IS BEING PULLED
POLEWARD BY GFDN AND GFS, WHICH ARE ALREADY SHOWING THEY ARE NOT
HANDLING THE SYSTEM WELL. THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER TAU 72
WILL BE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL, ANY SCENARIO
DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR OKINAWA. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISPARITY
IN INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, WITH DYNAMIC AIDS GENERALLY
SHOWING SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITIES THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS (PARTICULARLY STIPS 11)
INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF ORGANIZATION OF STY 11W, STIPS
GUIDANCE WILL BE DISMISSED OVER THE NEAR TERM, BUT OVER THE MEDIUM
AND LONG TERM, THEIR ABILITY TO FACTOR OCEAN HEAT CONTENT INTO THE
INTENSITY TREND IS USED AS A BASIS FOR FORECASTING A DE-
INTENSIFICATION TREND AFTER TAU 48...(more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on STY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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