for Thursday, 21 July 2011 [6:20 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 18 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 027
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Thu 21 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #040/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MA-ON (INENG) downgraded to a Tropical Depression...tracking Eastward across the NW Pacific Ocean.
Sailors and Sea Navigators along its path should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu July 21 2011
Location of Center: 30.6º N Lat 141.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 400 km (215 nm) NNW of Chichi Jima
Distance 2: 595 km (322 nm) SSE of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 3: 645 km (348 nm) North of Iwo To
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
24hr Rainfall Accum (South of center): 110 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 1110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Thu July 21
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to continue moving Eastward within the next 06 to 12 hours, before turning sharpy NE-ward through 48 hours. This system will weaken considerably before becoming Extratropical. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Maintains depression status...about 360 km NNE of Chichi Jima [2AM JUL 22: 30.2N 142.5E @ 55kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Just barely a Tropical Cyclone as it weakens further as it turns NE'ly...about 485 km NNE of Chichi Jima, Japan [2PM JUL 22: 31.0N 144.0E @ 45kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Accelerating NE-ward across the NW Pacific Ocean...about 615 km SE of Tokyo, Japan [2AM JUL 23: 32.7N 145.3E @ 45kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Intensified slightly as it starts becoming Extratropical...about 685 km East of Tokyo, Japan [2PM JUL 23: 35.6N 147.3E @ 55kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Little change in strength is expected through the evening. MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical...intensifying well to south of Kuril Islands [2PM JUL 24: 41.4N 151.9E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MA-ON's (INENG) circulation becoming more elongated and sheared as it tracks Eastward across the open waters of the NW Pacific Ocean. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (off NW Pacific Ocean)...no longer affecting land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Chichi Jima & Bonin Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 110 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG), especially along the southern portion. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 21 JULY POSITION: 30.4N 140.8E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM
SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A FILLING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED AND CLOUD-FREE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MSI ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE
FIELD OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FLOWING DOWN THE KANTO AND INTO THE
SYSTEM. A 202349Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS THE HIGHEST WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE LLCC, IN THE
NORTHEASTERLIES OFF-SHORE OF TOKYO AND IN THE CONVERGENT
SOUTHWESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS THE
ONLY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND THAT IS DUE TO STRAIGHT-LINE
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE GRADIENT FLOW. BOTH A 201637Z AMSRE AND A
202333Z SSMI MICROWAVE SERIES SHOWS A BROAD, OPEN LLCC WITH NO DEEP
CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CORE. ATSUGI AND YOKOTA ARE REPORTING
TEMPERATURE FALLS OF 20 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT FROM THEIR PRE-08W
CONDITIONS. THE MOISTURE FRONT LIES BETWEEN HANEDA AIRPORT (RJTT)
AND HACHIOJIMA (RJTH), AS THERE IS AN EIGHT DEGREE CELSIUS DEW POINT
CONTRAST BETWEEN THE TWO STATIONS, AND HACHIOJIMA IS STILL IN THE
TROPICAL AIR. THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE KANTO COMBINED WITH THE MERGE OF THE SYSTEM WITH AN
EXTENSIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC
FROM OFF-SHORE OF JAPAN INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA GIVE TD 08W THE
SIGNATURE OF A SYSTEM THAT IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
AND FORMING A WAVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY. NOT SO FAST,
HOWEVER. HI-RES VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC IS SEPARATED SLIGHTLY
FROM THE BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, AND AMSU TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL
SHOW MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALIES TYPICAL OF A MATURE TROPICAL SYSTEM.
500 MB HEIGHT VALUES ARE ALSO TROPICAL. FURTHERMORE, THE
SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO ALLOW IT TO OPEN SOME
MORE SEPARATION FROM THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
STILL LESS THAN 20 KNOTS, NOT TYPICAL OF A SYSTEM UNDERGOING NORMAL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PGTW 210000Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TD 08W EXISTS IN A MODERATELY DIFFLUENT REGION
VERY CLOSE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
SHOWS THAT THE POLAR FRONT JET IS WELL EAST OF THE LLCC, DIVING DOWN
ALONG THE 150TH MERIDIAN DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN
SEA OF JAPAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 200MB ANALYSIS REVEAL THAT THE
NORTHWESTERLIES FLOWING OVER THE TOHOKU REGION AND TOWARDS TD 08W
ARE ACTUALLY A FINGER OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET, WHICH HAS BEEN
DISPLACED POLEWARD DUE TO THE UPSTREAM RIDGE. ALL IN ALL THEN, TD
08W EXISTS IN AN EXTREMELY COMPLEX, ATYPICAL ENVIRONMENT AND IS
LIKEWISE SHOWING ATYPICAL BEHAVIORS. MODEL GUIDANCE DID FAIRLY WELL
TO PREDICT THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN IN THE TRACK, AT LEAST FROM INSIDE
72, BUT ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AND
THE INTENSITY DURING THAT PHASE. MOST INDICATE THAT TD 08W WILL
UNDERGO AN EXTREMELY SLOW EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND DEVELOP
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT IS FORCED POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A THE BLOCKING RIDGE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC. MANY ALSO PREDICT TD 08W WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL
HEIGHT VALUES AT 500 MB AS FAR POLEWARD AS THE KURILS, WHICH IS
DIFFICULT TO VIEW WITHOUT SKEPTICISM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND MAINTENANCE OF WARM CORE
CHARACTERISTICS ONLY THROUGH 35N (APPROXIMATELY TAU 48). GIVEN THAT
THE LLCC IS MOVING UNDER A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND INCREASING DIVERGENCE, MILD RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS IS PLAUSIBLE. AFTER TAU 48, THE SHARP DROP-OFF IN SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL WEAKEN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM
REGARDLESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
BETWEEN ECMWF AND JGSM, AS CONSENSUS IS BEING DISTORTED BY AN
INCOHERENT GFDN TRACK...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
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