for Monday, 18 July 2011 [1:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 18 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 155 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 18 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #027/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Category 2 Typhoon MA-ON (INENG) remains a very-large system moving north...endangers Japan's Southern Coastline.
Residents and visitors along the Southern coastal areas of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon July 18 2011
Location of Eye: 28.0º N Lat 133.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 335 km (180 nm) North of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 340 km (183 nm) ESE of Naje, Japan
Distance 3: 470 km (255 nm) SSE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 560 km (303 nm) ENE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 1405 km (760 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Southern Coast of Japan
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Morning [8-9AM JST]
6hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 1340 km (725 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Mon July 18
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY WEAK >> Mostly sunny to some cloudy periods with possible passing drizzles, showers will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, MINDANAO, & WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to slightly intensify & maintain its poleward (north) track within the next 24 hours before recurving sharply towards the NE to ENE through 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (MON): Slowly re-intensifies as it maintains its Northward track...about 295 km East of Naje, Japan [8PM JUL 18: 28.8N 132.8E @ 175kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (TUE): Regains Category 3 status, still moving north in the direction of Shikoku-Southern Honshu Area...about 225 km ESE of Kagoshima, Japan [8AM JUL 19: 30.8N 132.8E @ 195kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (TUE): Downgraded to Category 2 as it starts recurving NE-ward, just along the coast of Shikoku...about 120 km South of Kochi, Japan [8PM JUL 19: 32.4N 133.6E @ 175kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 1 as it makes landfall over Wakayama Peninsula in Southern Honshu...about 200 km South of Kyoto, Japan [8AM JUL 20: 33.5N 135.6E @ 150kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some strengthening is still expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,340 kilometers (725 nautical miles) across.
METROPOLITAN TOKYO: About 210 km to the South of the metropolis [ETA: between 8:00-9:00 AM JST Thursday, July 21].
WAKAYAMA PENINSULA, HONSHU: Making landfall along the southern shores of the peninsula [ETA: between 8:00-10:00 PM JST Wednesday, July 20].
THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to lose strength as it begins transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone...tracking Eastward near the coast of Southern Honshu (South of Tokyo) [8AM JUL 21: 33.8N 140.0E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it becomes Extratropical...moving farther away from the SE Coast of Honshu and into the Northwest Pacific Basin [8AM JUL 22: 34.3N 145.9E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MA-ON's (INENG) circulation remains large but has weakened continuously since last night. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. However, it will reach the coastal areas of Eastern Kyushu, Shikoku, & Southern Honshu by tomorrow. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Southern & Western Japan (Kyushu-Shikoku-Western & Southern Honshu), & the small japanese islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
06HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to med rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (medium-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY WEAK >> Mostly sunny to some cloudy periods with possible passing drizzles, showers will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, MINDANAO, & WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY WEAK >> Mostly sunny to some cloudy periods with possible passing drizzles, showers will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, MINDANAO, & WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 18 JULY POSITION: 27.0N 133.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE
SURROUNDED BY A FRAGMENTED EYEWALL. A 172056Z SSMIS 37H GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A FORMATIVE
EYEWALL OF APPROXIMATELY 180 NM DIAMETER. BOTTOMLINE, THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO COMPLETE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE
(ERC) DESPITE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR-RADIAL
OUTFLOW. SUBSEQUENTLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS REDUCED TO 85 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES AND RJTD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE
AND A 172218Z SSMIS IMAGE. TY 08W CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WOBBLE BUT
NOW APPEARS TO BE HEADED GENERALLY NORTHWARD. TY MA-ON IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 6HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
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