for Wednesday, 27 July 2011 [6:35 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday July 26 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight & 3:00 AM) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 27 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) weakens further as it traverses the Cordillera Central Mountains...will pass over Ilocos Sur-Abra Area in the next few hours. Tropical Storm Conditions prevailing across Ifugao, Mountain Province, Northern Benguet, Ilocos Sur, & Abra. NOCK-TEN will be passing close to the south of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur between 7-8PM tonight before emerging over the South China Sea.
Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed July 27 2011
Location of Center: 17.1º N Lat 120.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 65 km (35 nm) SSE of Vigan City
Distance 2: 70 km (38 nm) NNE of San Fernando City
Distance 3: 80 km (43 nm) North of Baguio City
Distance 4: 110 km (60 nm) WNW of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 5: 115 km (63 nm) West of Ilagan City
Distance 6: 120 km (65 nm) WSW of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 125 km (68 nm) South of Laoag City
Distance 8: 130 km (70 nm) NNE of Dagupan City
Distance 9: 180 km (97 nm) NW of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 10: 280 km (150 nm) NNW of Metro Manila
Distance 11: 470 km (255 nm) NW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Ilocos Sur-Abra Area
CPA [ETA] to Vigan: Wed Afternoon [6-8PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 590 km (320 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 PM PhT Wed July 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, BICOL REGION & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected tonight. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to exit Northern Luzon tonight and move across the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) towards Southern China through the next 1-2 days. It will re-intensify over the West Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Continues to weaken after interacting with the Cordilleras...returns at sea (West Philippine Sea)...about 130 km SW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [2AM JUL 28: 17.3N 119.2E @ 95kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Re-intensifies while moving across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from Luzon...about 400 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte [2PM JUL 28: 18.1N 116.8E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it nears Typhoon status...about 380 km South of Hong Kong [2AM JUL 29: 18.8N 114.3E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon as its approaches the NE Coast of Hainan Island, China...about 170 km East of Hainan Island, China [2PM JUL 29: 19.4N 112.3E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 205 kilometers (110 nautical miles) from the center. NOCK-TEN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles) across.
ILOCOS SUR-ABRA AREA: Along the La Union-Abra Border...About 45 km South of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur [ETA: between 6:00-8:00 PM PhT Today].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm...while off the West Coast of Hainan Island, China...moving into the Gulf of Tonkin - after crossing the northern part of Hainan [2PM JUL 30: 19.9N 108.6E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Makes landfall over Northern Vietnam...rapidly dissipating [2PM JUL 31: 19.9N 105.5E @ 85kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating over land...in the vicinity of Laos [2PM AUG 01: 20.0N 102.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation has rapidly deteriorated while crossing Northern Luzon. Its rainbands continues to spread across Northern & Central Luzon. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, Mountain Province, Ifugao, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Abra, & Southern Isabela. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Mindoro, Rest of Luzon including the islands of Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan-Polillo.. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Depression 11W (UNNAMED) moving NW-ward across the Caroline Islands...may become a Tropical Storm tomorrow. Its center was located near lat 10.7N lon 140.5E...about 295 km ENE of Yap, FSM...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center. View the latest satellite flash loop on this cyclone.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 27 JULY POSITION: 16.2N 121.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LLCC HAS MOVED OVER THE PHILIPPINES AND NO
LONGER HAS AN EYE BUT MAINTAINS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON KNES AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS
AND THE WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE LAND INFLUENCE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 10W HAS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TS 10W
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. THIS
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE MAJOR STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SUPPORTS A STRAIGHT RUNNER WESTWARD
TRACK. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES OVER
LUZON, HOWEVER, SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATER AND
A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER HAINAN ISLAND AND WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER VIETNAM. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS...(more info)
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, BICOL REGION & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, BICOL REGION & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected tonight. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
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