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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 15 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #015
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The powerful Typhoon MA-ON (08W) nearing Category 4 status as it maintains its westerly track. Meanwhile, LPA 92W has become disorganized as it interacts with MA-ON...now moving ENE off the Philippine Sea, hundreds of miles to the ENE of Bicol. This system is not a threat to the Philippine Islands and may dissipate soon.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Japan & Korea should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri July 15 2011
Location of Eye: 20.5º N Lat 141.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 480 km (260 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 2: 720 km (388 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 3: 1585 km (855 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 2070 km (1117 nm) East of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Kyushu-Shikoku Area
6hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Fri July 15
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to turn WNW-ward and continue to intensify for the next 2 days. It shall be near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) by tomorrow evening (July 16). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (FRI): Attains to Category 4 status...about 470 km SSW of Iwo To [8PM JUL 15: 20.7N 140.2E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Still intensifying while over the Western Pacific...about 505 km SW of Iwo To [8AM JUL 16: 21.2N 138.3E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Nearing Super Typhoon status as it approaches the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 1000 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8PM JUL 16: 21.9N 136.3E @ 230kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Maintains its near-Super Typhoon status...enters the PAR...about 810 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM JUL 17: 22.9N 134.8E @ 230kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify through the next 24 to 48 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it turns sharply towards the NW to NNW...exits the PAR [8AM JUL 18: 25.7N 132.6E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3...tracking Northward towards Kyushu-Shikoku Area in Japan [8AM JUL 19: 29.1N 132.0E @ 205kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Just along the SW coast of Shikoku, Japan...makes landfall [8AM JUL 20: 32.6N 132.6E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation continues to show a 19-km eye w/ strong eyewall convection especially along the southern portion. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
SMALL EYE (19-KM) - remains over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 120 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Sunny to cloudy with possible isolated squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 15 JULY POSITION: 20.4N 142.5E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
10 NM EYE WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE EYE AND A BANDING FEATURE ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. TY 08W
MAINTAINS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 100 TO
115 KNOTS. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF
TOKYO, JAPAN...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 6HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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