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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 18 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 028
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Fri 22 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #042/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression MA-ON (INENG) maintained its strength as it continued moving ESE across the open waters of the NW Pacific.
Sailors and Sea Navigators along its path should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri July 22 2011
Location of Center: 29.2º N Lat 142.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 245 km (132 nm) NNE of Chichi Jima
Distance 2: 325 km (175 nm) NNE of Bonin Island
Distance 3: 495 km (267 nm) NNE of Iwo To
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: ESE @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
24hr Rainfall Accum (South of center): 100 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 1110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Fri July 22
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to turn ENE to NE within the 24 hours while over the NW Pacific and shall re-intensify back to Tropical Storm (TS) status. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Maintains depression status...about 420 km NNE of Chichi Jima [2PM JUL 22: 30.6N 143.6E @ 55kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Re-intensifies back to Tropical Storm strength, accelerating NE-ward...about 625 km SE of Tokyo, Japan [2AM JUL 23: 32.3N 145.1E @ 65kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Still intensifying while maintaining its NE'ly track...about 635 km ESE of Tokyo, Japan [2PM JUL 23: 34.5N 146.5E @ 75kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it starts transforming into an Extratropical Cyclone...about 695 km ESE of Sendai, Japan [2AM JUL 24: 37.2N 148.7E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Little change in strength is expected through the evening. MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Extratropical status...weakens while passing to south of Kuril Islands [2AM JUL 25: 43.2N 153.9E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MA-ON's (INENG) circulation becoming more elongated and sheared as it tracks Eastward across the open waters of the NW Pacific Ocean. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Chichi Jima, Iwo To, & Bonin Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG), especially along the southern portion. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 22 JULY POSITION: 30.1N 142.0E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. A 211106Z ASCAT
IMAGE DEPICTS 25-30 KNOT CORE WINDS WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF 35-40
KNOT GRADIENT WINDS DISPLACED NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE RECENT
AMSU CROSS-SECTION CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALY
OF +2C INDICATIVE OF A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE TAIL-END OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH AND UNDER MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WHICH ARE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
THE IR ANIMATION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 25-35 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD AS WELL AS THE RECENT ASCAT DATA. TD 08W IS
TRACKING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUT IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
AND TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD AS THE STR BUILDS OVER THE NEXT 12-
36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR THE
GFS TRACKER WHICH PULLS THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 24 AND
IS WEST OF THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC AIDS. THIS FORECAST IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. TD
08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 36 AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER-LEVEL STR BUILDS OVER THE
LLCC AND VWS RELAXES. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOL SST (< 26C) NORTH OF 35N.
TD 08W IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY
TAU 72 ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A TYPICAL ETT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE
SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES AND LACK OF A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC INTERACTION...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
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