Saturday, July 16, 2011

TD TOKAGE [HANNA] - Final Update

 


for Saturday, 16 July 2011 [12:45 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday July 16 2011):

Now ending the 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TOKAGE (HANNA).


TOKAGE (HANNA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOKAGE [HANNA/09W/1107]

T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004 **FINAL**

11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 16 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #004 (Final)
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression TOKAGE (HANNA) dissipating over the Western Pacific Ocean...accelerating rapidly ENE and is now being absorbed into the southern rainbands of Typhoon MA-ON.

*This is the Final Advisory of Typhoon2000.com/Maybagyo.com on HANNA.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat July 16 2011
Location of Center: 16.3º N Lat 139.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 450 km (243 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1615 km (872 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 52 kph (28 kts)
Towards: MA-ON's Southern Circulation
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0.0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Sat July 16

FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 1 day)*

TOKAGE (HANNA) is expected to be absorbed completely into the strong southern rainband circulation of Typhoon MA-ON within 12-24 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.

THIS EVENING (SAT):  Just an area of low pressure within MA-ON's rainbands...about 1955 km East of Northern Luzon, PH [8PM JUL 16: 18.3N 140.7E @ 35kph].
SUNDAY MORNING:  Already a part of MA-ON's rainbands...about 1860 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [8AM JUL 17: 22.2N 139.9E @ 30kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. TOKAGE (HANNA) is a weak Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will dissipate within the next 12-24 hours.

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 16 JULY POSITION: 15.6N 138.7E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. A 152257Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICTS WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED ABOUT 325 NM SOUTH OF TYPHOON (TY) 08W AND IS UNDERGOING
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (FUJIWARA) AS EVIDENCED BY THE RAPID
ACCELERATION EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF TY 08W. TD
09W IS ALSO UNDER HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYLONIC OUTFLOW OF TY 08W. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM
RJTD; PGTW AND KNES HAVE THE SYSTEM UNCLASSIFIED. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING INTO THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TY 08W AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU
12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONI-
TORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...
.(
more)

>> TOKAGE, meaning: Laceta; LizardName contributed by: Japan.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
:

 
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  


> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
:  


***N/A***

> Image source:
  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD TOKAGE (HANNA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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