<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 18 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 19 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #031/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The eye of Typhoon MA-ON (INENG) is just along the SW Coast of Shikoku...expected to pass just along the shorelines of Southern & Eastern Shikoku this evening. Typhoon conditions expected across Southern and Eastern Shikoku.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon July 18 2011
Location of Eye: 32.5º N Lat 133.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km (67 nm) SSW of Kochi, Japan
Distance 2: 220 km (120 nm) SSE of Hiroshima, Japan
Distance 3: 260 km (140 nm) WSW of Wakayama Peninsula
Distance 4: 260 km (140 nm) SSW of Okayama, Japan
Distance 5: 710 km (383 nm) WSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Southern Honshu Area
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Morning [5-10AM JST]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1055 km (570 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Tue July 19
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to continue losing strength as it veers towards the NE and make landfall along the Southern & Eastern Shikoku & Wakayama Peninsula (Southern Honshu) within the next 24 to 36 hours. It shall track more to the East to ESE, passing south of Tokyo by Thursday morning (48 hours). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (TUE): Just barely a Typhoon as it moves onshore & makes landfall along the Southern Coast of Shikoku, Japan...about 15 km SE of Kochi, Japan [8PM JUL 19: 33.4N 133.7E @ 120kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (WED): Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) upon crossing the rugged terrain of Shikoku...currently crossing the Wakayama Peninsula of Southern Honshu...about 140 km SSW of Kyoto, Japan [8AM JUL 20: 34.0N 135.4E @ 110kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (WED): Turns ESE-ward and exits the Wakayama Peninsula...currently offshore about 170 km SSE of Nagoya, Japan [8PM JUL 20: 33.7N 137.2E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Continues to move ESE farther away from the Southern Coast of Honshu...about 280 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan [8AM JUL 21: 33.2N 139.3E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected within the next 12-24 hours due to land interaction. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 415 kilometers (225 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,055 kilometers (570 nautical miles) across.
SOUTHERN-EASTERN SHIKOKU: Making landfall & crossing the area...about 15 km SE of Kochi City [ETA: between 9:00 PM tonight to 3:00 AM JST early tomorrow].
WAKAYAMA PENINSULA, HONSHU: Making landfall & crossing the peninsula [ETA: between 9:00 AM-3:00 PM JST Tomorrow, July 20].
METROPOLITAN TOKYO: About 280 km to the SSW of the metropolis [ETA: between 9:00-11:00 AM JST Thursday, July 21].
FRIDAY MORNING: Starts moving NE-ward across the Northwest Pacific Ocean...no change in strength [8AM JUL 22: 31.9N 143.1E @ 110kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its NE-ward track over the open seas of the NW Pacific [8AM JUL 23: 34.1N 147.1E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Becoming Extratropical as it weakens slightly [8AM JUL 24: 38.0N 151.9E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MA-ON's (INENG) very large circulation is now spreading across much of Japan with its core just along the SW Coast of Shikoku. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (or near the SW coast of Shikoku)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - spreading & affecting Southwestern & Southern Coast of Shikoku. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Kyushu, Rest of Shikoku, & Wakayama Peninsula (off Southern Honshu) today. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the whole of Japan except for Northernmost part of Honshu and Hokkaido. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Kyushu, Shikoku, & Southern Honshu today until Wednesday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan and the outlying islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Chichijima, Iwo To and other neaby areas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY WEAK >> Mostly sunny to some cloudy periods with possible passing drizzles, showers, & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 19 JULY POSITION: 31.9N 132.9E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A TIGHTLY
CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION SPIRALING INWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. MUCH SHALLOWER CONVECTION IS PRESENT IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS, INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN 18/0030Z 89 GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE
SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS CONVECTION CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONGER
DIFFLUENT CHANNEL EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM THE NE QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FAVORABLE (5-10 KNOTS). THE
OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE EXTENDING WELL INTO HONSHU AND KYUSHU WITH
STRONGER BANDS IMPACTING SHIKOKU, PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE COAST OF KYUSHU INDICATE WINDS OF 20-
30 KNOTS BETWEEN TOKUSHIMA AND KOSHIGA. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOOP CONTINUES TO DEPICT A VERY NARROW BAND OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT FROM THE WEST. IMPACTS TO STORM
STRUCTURE ARE MINIMAL, HOWEVER, WITH CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT ONLY SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED. TY 08W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AS IT
APPROACHES LANDFALL IN SHIKOKU. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved