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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
SUPER TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 31 July 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #023/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Super Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) remains an extremely catastrophic Category 5 cyclone while moving northeastward across the North Philippine Sea. This powerful system will enhance & pull the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat in Tagalog) together with the strong low pressure (97W) located West of Pangasinan...bringing occasional to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms across Western Visayas, Central & Northern Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro & Northern Palawan for the next few days.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, the Southern Islands of Japan & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat July 30 2011
Location of Pinhole Eye: 17.1º N Lat 132.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 995 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,090 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1,135 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,175 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1,280 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 1,190 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,160 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 8: 1,445 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (135 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (West of center): 400 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 45 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Sun July 31
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying, reaching a projected whooping wind speed of 290 km/hr on Tuesday. This howler will resume its northward motion for the next 2 days, and will initiate an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (SUN): Regains Category 5 status as it moves Northward across the warm Philippine Sea...about 1,165 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan [8PM JUL 31: 17.7N 132.7E @ 260kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (MON): Intensifying over the warm Philippine Sea...moving north slowly...about 1,210 km ESE of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8AM AUG 01: 18.8N 133.0E @ 270kph].
TOMORROW EVENING: Reaches its peak strength as it continues to track northward...about 1,140 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [8PM AUG 01: 19.9N 132.9E @ 290kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it starts moving NW-ward in the direction of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands...about 1,120 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM AUG 02: 21.1N 132.6E @ 290kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 250 km/hr (135 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) remains a Category 5 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale, an extremely catastrophic cyclone. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Weakens a bit but remains at Category 5...turns more to the WNW...endangers Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands [8AM AUG 03: 23.4N 131.0E @ 280kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it maintains its WNW motion...approaching Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands [8AM AUG 04: 24.9N 129.4E @ 260kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 4...no longer a Super Typhoon...Eye passing very close to the South of Kadena Air Base (Okinawa) [8AM AUG 05: 26.2N 127.5E @ 220kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains an impressive Super Typhoon...showing a 19-km. pinhole eye surrounded by a very intense eyewall. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
PINHOLE EYE (19-KM DIAMETER) - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the OUTER & INNER RAINBANDS...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very high) to the south of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
The Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) over the West Philippine Sea has strengthened as it moves ESE...now off the coast of Western Pangasinan. The center was located near lat 16.4N lon 119.5E...about 35 km WNW of Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center...drifting ESE slowly. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now @ 60% [High]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this cyclone.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 31 JULY POSITION: 16.8N 132.6E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY MUIFA HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS WARMING
CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASED CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
DROP-OFF IN CONVECTION IS A RESULT OF TWO FACTORS: ONE, THE TUTT
CELL PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS OPENED UP TOO MUCH
DISTANCE ON THE STORM AND THE CHANNEL HAS CUT OFF, AND TWO, THERE IS
SOME MILD SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS NORTHWESTERLIES DIVING OVER SOUTHERN
HONSHU. THE NORTHWESTERLIES ARE DRIVING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. NONETHELESS,
STY 11W REMAINS A SUPER TYPHOON AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A 10 NM PINHOLE EYE
AND VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN EVERY QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH A 302118Z SSMIS
PASS VERIFIES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED SOMEWHAT OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, IT ALSO VERIFIES THE EXISTENCE OF A DEEP AND
CONTIGUOUS EYEWALL. THE MICROWAVE IMAGE IS ALSO SHOWING WHAT MAY BE
THE VERY BEGINNING OF AN OUTER EYEWALL FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT, BUT THAT IS THE FIRST IMAGE THAT EVEN HINTS AT THAT
PROCESS, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS NO SIGN OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT YET. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES AND 95 KNOTS FROM RJTD.
SSTY 11W HAS A SINGULAR OUTFLOW POINT ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM IS NO MORE THAN 5 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THE OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE EQUATORWARD AND EAST SIDE OF THE
STORM REMAIN VIGOROUS. STY 11W HAS RECENTLY CLEARED THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND IS NOW DRIFTING POLEWARD IN A VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. THE HIGH INTENSITY AND SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM IS
GENERATING TREMENDOUS SEAS. THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS AN
EFFECT OF A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXISTS
BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN
HIGH. THE BONIN HIGH HAS BEEN DISPLACED UNUSUALLY FAR EASTWARD, ALL
THE WAY TO THE DATELINE.more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on STY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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