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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sat 30 July 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #019/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is now a Typhoon as it jogs temporarily northwestward across the North Philippine Sea...expected to resume a north-northwest or northward motion tonight.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, the Southern Islands of Japan & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sat July 30 2011
Location of Eye: 16.2º N Lat 133.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,015 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,110 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1,185 km EAST of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,245 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1,310 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 1,275 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,275 km SSE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 8: 1,550 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 PM PhT Sat July 30
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying & resume moving NNW to Northward over the Northern Philippine Sea through 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (SAT): Resumes its northward motion across the North Philippine Sea...about 1,210 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [8PM JUL 30: 17.0N 133.8E @ 120kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (SUN): Continues to intensify over the North Philippine Sea...about 1,300 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [8AM JUL 31: 18.2N 134.0E @ 140kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (SUN): Upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon...about 1,310 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [8PM JUL 31: 19.5N 134.4E @ 160kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its intensification trend as it moves Northward across the Northeastern Philippine Sea...about 1,330 km East of Itbayat, Batanes [8AM AUG 01: 20.7N 134.6E @ 165kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY MORNING: Approaching Category 3 status...turns NNW to NW-ward towards Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands [8AM AUG 02: 23.0N 134.2E @ 175kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Turns more WNW-ward upon exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), increases its threat to Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands [8AM AUG 03: 25.3N 132.9E @ 175kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Approaching Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands...weakens slightly [8AM AUG 04: 26.4N 130.7E @ 165kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & WESTERN VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation has somewhat improved dramatically during the past 6 hours - with the development of a small, cloud-filled eye as seen on the current satellite imagery (0332 GMT). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (off the North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (off the North Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CENTRAL & WESTERN VISAYAS, CALAMIAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON (from LA UNION, PANGASINAN down to ZAMBALES & BATAAN) including MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 30 JULY POSITION: 15.8N 134.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION.
CONVECTION IS CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IS
EXPANDING. A 292239Z TRMM PASS CONFIRMS GOOD ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING
A MICROWAVE EYE, AS WELL AS DEEP CONVECTION OVER ALL SECTORS.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SUPPRESSION OF OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS EASED, AND OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT, A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL IS EVIDENT.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
ESTIMATED AT ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND
77 KNOTS FROM KNES. TS MUIFA IS BEING STEERED IN A POLEWARD PATTERN
BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
NEAR 11N 150E. THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS A RESULT OF A WIDE WEAKNESS
BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE BONIN
HIGH, WHICH HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THE DATELINE. THE POLEWARD TRACK AND
THE EXTENSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) WERE RESULTING IN GREATER THAN NORMAL DISPARITY IN
MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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