for Friday, 29 July 2011 [12:01 PM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight & 3:00 AM) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 29 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) continues to move closer to Hainan Island...landfall expected tonight.
Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam & Southern China particularly Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri July 29 2011
Location of Center: 18.9º N Lat 112.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 190 km (103 nm) ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 250 km (135 nm) SE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 290 km (155 nm) ESE of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 4: 305 km (165 nm) ENE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 5: 380 km (205 nm) East of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 6: 325 km (175 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 7: 415 km (225 nm) SW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Hainan Island
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM HKT Fri July 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to continue moving WNW to Westward towards Hainan. This system is expected to make landfall over Hainan later tonight. It will be over the Gulf of Tonkin on Saturday & make its last landfall over Central Vietnam Saturday night. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (FRI): Maintains its strength as it starts to cross South-Central Hainan...about 40 km SSW of Qionghai, Hainan [8PM JUL 29: 18.9N 110.3E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Off the West Coast of Hainan, emerging over the Gulf of Tonkin...about 40 km SW of Dongfang, Hainan [8AM JUL 30: 18.9N 108.4E @ 85kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Moving onshore along the coast of Central Vietnam...about 295 km SSE of Hanoi, Vietnam [8PM JUL 30: 18.4N 106.3E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves inland over Laos...about 330 km SSW of Hanoi, Vietnam [8AM JUL 31: 18.2N 104.7E @ 55kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. NOCK-TEN is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.
HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA: Making landfall along the Southeast Coast south of Qionghai & exit south of Dongfang [ETA: between 7:00 PM HKT Friday, July 29 to 7:00 AM Saturday, July 30].
CENTRAL VIETNAM: Making landfall along the coast...about 290 km South of Hanoi, Vietnam [ETA: between 9:00-11:00 PM PhT Sunday, July 31].
MONDAY MORNING: Dissipated over Laos...just an area of Low Pressure (Tropical Disturbance) [8AM AUG 01: 18.7N 102.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation has changed - with its convective rainclouds becoming more concentrated along the southern & western quadrants. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water (South China Sea)...but is now spreading & affecting the Eastern & Northern parts of Hainan Island Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Rest of Hainan Island & the coastal areas of Guangdong Province & Northern Vietnam . Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of NOCK-TEN (JUANING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 29 JULY POSITION: 18.4N 112.3E.
*TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) BUT CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, A CURVILINEAR BAND HAS FORMED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC WHICH WRAPS INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STORM. A 28/2201Z 91 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS THE VIGOROUS DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN FEEDER BAND, LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, AND DISPLAYS THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN CHINA
AS THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TS 10W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND.
RECENT UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT TS 10W IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. DESPITE THE
MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR TO THE NORTH, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH DISTINCTIVE CROSS EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW AND
A CONTINUED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS FROM KNES. TS
10W CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ASIA...(more info)
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved