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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday July 26 2011):
Currently issuing 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight & 3:00 AM) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 27 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) has rapidly gained strength as it approaches the coast of Aurora. The banding eye will make landfall over or near Baler this morning (approx 9-10 AM). Storm's rainbands continues to cover the whole of Luzon including Northern Bicol.
At 6:00 AM Local Time, Typhoon2000 Automated Weather Station in Naga City (13.6N 123.2E) has recorded wind gust of 14.5 kph blowing from the ESE, with barometric pressure of 1002.7 millibars & 54-hr. Rainfall Accumulation of 248 mm.
Residents and visitors along Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed July 27 2011
Location of Banding Eye: 15.4º N Lat 122.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 80 km (43 nm) SE of Baler, Aurora
Distance 2: 85 km (45 nm) NE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 3: 90 km (48 nm) South of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 130 km (70 nm) East of Cabanatuan City
Distance 5: 150 km (80 nm) NE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 165 km (90 nm) NW of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 7: 175 km (95 nm) ENE of Clark/Angeles City
Distance 8: 205 km (110 nm) SE of Baguio City
Distance 9: 220 km (120 nm) ESE of Dagupan City
Distance 10: 225 km (123 nm) NW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Aurora-Northern Luzon
CPA [ETA] to Baler: Wed Morning [8-10AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 310 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 10-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 AM PhT Wed July 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2) The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected today. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to continue moving WNW-ward across Luzon & into the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) within the next 1-2 days. It shall weaken slightly upon traversing the northern part of Central Luzon and re-intensify upon emerging over the West Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (WED): In the vicinity of Nueva Ecija-Nueva Vizcaya Border...weakens slightly after crossing the Sierra Madre Mountains...about 40 km SE of Baguio City [2PM JUL 27: 16.1N 120.8E @ 95kph]. This system is expected to cross Northern Pangasinan-Southern Benguet-La Union before moving out into the West Philippine Sea late this afternoon. It will pass very close to the south of the cities of Baguio and San Fernando between 4-6PM today.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Accelerating WNW across the West Philippine Sea, farther away from Luzon...about 235 km WNW of San Fernando City, La Union [2AM JUL 28: 17.2N 118.2E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching typhoon strength as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) while moving WNW across the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)...about 550 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Sur [2PM JUL 28: 18.2N 115.4E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Almost a typhoon as it continued moving WNW across the South China Sea...approaching the NE Coast of Hainan Island, China...about 285 km East of Hainan Island, China [2AM JUL 29: 19.0N 113.2E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. NOCK-TEN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.
SOUTHERN AURORA: Making landfall over Baler...about 70 km SW of Casiguran, Aurora [ETA: between 8:00-10:00 AM PhT Today].
BENGUET: Over Southern Benguet...about 25 km SW of Baguio City [ETA: between 4:00-5:00 PM PhT Today].
LA UNION: Over Southern La Union...About 25 km SSW of San Fernando City [ETA: between 5:00-6:00 PM PhT Today].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it makes landfall over Northern Hainan Island [2AM JUL 30: 19.7N 110.2E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to weaken...moving along the Gulf of Tonkin towards Northern Vietnam [2AM JUL 31: 19.7N 107.4E @ 85kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipating over land or in the vicinity of Laos [2AM AUG 01: 20.1N 102.9E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation remains intact with the development of a banding eye...with its rainbands spreading across Luzon and Northern Bicol. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
BANDING EYE - now along the Coast of Southern Aurora. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Aurora, Northern Quezon, Polillo Islands, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Camarines Norte, Bulacan, & Rizal. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Rest of Luzon including Eastern & Southern Bicol, Marinduque, . Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 310 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Depression 11W (UNNAMED) moving WNW-ward across the Caroline Islands...may become a Tropical Storm today. Its center was located near lat 9.7N lon 141.0E...about 320 km East of Yap, FSM...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 55 kph near the center. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
In Effect: METRO MANILA, CAMARINES NORTE, QUEZON, POLILLO ISLAND, BATANGAS, LAGUNA, CAVITE, RIZAL, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, BATAAN, ZAMBALES, TARLAC, PANGASINAN, NUEVA ECIJA, AURORA, QUIRINO, NUEVA VIZCAYA, BENGUET, & LA UNION.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected today. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 27 JULY POSITION: 14.9N 122.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
HAS DEEPENED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND A FORMATIVE BANDING EYE
FEATURE STARTING TO DEVELOP. A 261744z AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWS A DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING MOSTLY AROUND A BANDING MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE WITH FRAGMENTS OF MORE BANDING FORMING TO THE SOUTH AND THE
NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS HAS THE SYSTEM BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING FAIR RADIAL
OUTFLOW, WITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL EASTERLY JET (TEJ)
TO THE SOUTHWEST. VENTING IS STARTING TO LINK INTO A TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CHINA EASTWARD TO THE RYUKYU ISLANDS. TS 10W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON LUZON IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL START TO
LOSE INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING BACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. OUTFLOW
TO THE TUTT WILL BE LOST BY THAT TIME, BUT THE TEJ WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL FOR A SECOND TIME OVER HAINAN
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN AND FINALLY VIETNAM. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...(more info)
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
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