for Monday, 18 July 2011 [6:40 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 18 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 155 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 18 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #028/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large Typhoon MA-ON (INENG) has maintain its northerly track...moving closer to Southern Japan. Its Outer Rainbands are now spreading across most parts of Japan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern coastal areas of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon July 18 2011
Location of Eye: 29.3º N Lat 133.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 320 km (172 nm) ENE of Naje, Japan
Distance 2: 345 km (187 nm) SE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 3: 600 km (323 nm) NE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 470 km (253 nm) SSW of Kochi, Japan
Distance 5: 950 km (513 nm) SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Southern Coast of Japan
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Morning [8-9AM JST]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 1340 km (725 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Mon July 18
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to slightly re-intensify & maintain its poleward (north) to NNE-ward track within the next 24 hours before recurving sharply towards the NE to ENE through 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING (TUE): Slowly re-intensifies as it maintains its Northward track...about 265 km ESE of Kagoshima, Japan [2AM JUL 19: 30.4N 133.0E @ 165kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (TUE): Still strengthening while along the southern coast of Shikoku, turns NNE to NE-ward in the direction of Wakayama Peninsula...about 165 km South of Kochi, Japan [2PM JUL 19: 32.0N 133.5E @ 175kph].
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING): Just along the coast of Shikoku...preparing to make landfall over Wakayama Peninsula as it moves more to the ENE to Eastward...about 125 km East of Kochi, Japan [2AM JUL 20: 33.3N 134.9E @ 160kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Off the coast of Southern Honshu...downgraded to Category 1 after making landfall over Wakayama Peninsula...about 145 km South of Nagoya, Japan [2PM JUL 20: 33.9N 136.9E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remains near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some little re-strengthening is expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,340 kilometers (725 nautical miles) across.
WAKAYAMA PENINSULA, HONSHU: Making landfall along the peninsula [ETA: between 6:00-10:00 AM JST Wednesday, July 20].
METROPOLITAN TOKYO: About 180 km to the South of the metropolis [ETA: between 4:00-6:00 AM JST Thursday, July 21].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it begins transitioning into an Extratropical Cyclone...tracking East to ENE-ward near the SE coast of Honshu (ESE of Tokyo) [2PM JUL 21: 34.2N 141.6E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Extratropical status as it continues to weaken and move East to ENE-ward into the Northwest Pacific Basin [2PM JUL 22: 35.0N 147.8E @ 85kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MA-ON's (INENG) very large circulation continues to hold on, especially its strength, despite entrainment of some drier air. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - will spread & affect the coastal areas of Eastern Kyushu, Shikoku, & Southern Honshu later tonight or tomorrow. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the whole of Japan except Hokkaido. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 180 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Kyushu, Shikoku, & Southern Honshu beginning tonight until Thursday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan and the outlying islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Chichijima, Iwo To and other neaby areas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY WEAK >> Mostly sunny to some cloudy periods with possible passing drizzles, showers, & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, MINDANAO, & WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 18 JULY POSITION: 28.3N 133.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD
ASYMMETRICAL CIRCULATION WITH A RELATIVELY FLAT TREND IN
ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. THE EXTREMELY BROAD SCALE OF TY 08W
COUPLED WITH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT TURNED OUT TO BE SLOW
AND INEFFICIENT HAS TAKEN A LOT OUT OF MA-ON. OUTER RAINBANDS HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED ALL THE WAY INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE LINES OF CONVERGENCE SPIRAL OUTWARDS ALL THE WAY
TO THE PHILIPPINE SEA, ROBBING THE CORE OF ENERGY. AN 180052Z ASCAT
AND SURFACE REPORTS VERIFY THAT GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARDS
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE FOR MORE THAN 200 NM. THE ORIGINAL EYE
HAS ABSORBED INTO THE SYSTEM AND A NEW, RAGGED EYE IS EMERGING. THE
EYE IS VERY DISTINCT ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE LOW LEVEL BANDING
IS THICK ON BOTH A 180011Z SSMIS IMAGE AND AN 180444Z AMSRE IMAGE,
BUT THE HIGHER FREQUENCY IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION IN
THE NEW EYEWALL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF 85 KNOTS IS BASED
ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND 90 KNOTS
FROM KNES. RJTD IS REPORTING SIMILAR T-VALUES. WIND RADII ARE
INITIALIZED WITH A COMBINATION OF AN 180052Z ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE
REPORTS. THE ASYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE OF THE STORM IS A RESULT OF A
TONGUE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR BEING SUCKED INTO THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE INCURSION OF LESS
SATURATED AIR INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT AND BOTH MICROWAVE IMAGES
SHOW AN ABSENCE OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE SAME QUADRANT. DEW POINT
REPORTS FROM THE NORTHERN RYUKUS INDICATE THE AIR IS ONLY MODERATELY
DRIER THAN THE ENVIRONMENT, HOWEVER, AND SHOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPEDING ON STORM DEVELOPMENT. TY 08W IS CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS OF
A WEAKENING AND RETREATING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACKING THROUGH A
REGION OF VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR INCREASED
INTENSITY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK IS BETWEEN 5 AND 10
KNOTS AND NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KNOTS UNTIL TY 08W IS
SEAWARD OF THE CHIBA PENINSULA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 29 DEGREES, AND ALTHOUGH THEY WILL FALL TO 28 DEGREES
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS, THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 29 TO 30
DEGREES NEAR THE COAST. THE PRIMARY WEAKENING FORCE ON TY 08W WILL
BE LAND INTERACTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER PROCESSES. INCREASED
CERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF LAND INTERACTION WILL COME TAU 24 AND
36 AS THE STORM CLEARS THE RIDGE AND VEERS INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
AFTER THE STORM VEERS TO AN EASTWARD COURSE, THE LACK OF A STRONG
STEERING FORCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOWER THAN TYPICAL TRACK SPEEDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HONSHU. THE LACK OF A SHEARING FORCE AND
THE WARM SEA WATER WILL ALSO SERVE TO KEEP THE STORM AT OR NEAR
TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT PASSES THE KANTO. BECAUSE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
IS DISPLACED SO FAR POLEWARD, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL NOT EVEN
BEGIN UNTIL AFTER THE STORM PASSES THE CHIBA PENINSULA...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
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