for Saturday, 16 July 2011 [7:00 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
MAJOR TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sat 16 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #020/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MA-ON (08W) has gained a little bit of strength as it turns more to the WNW...threat to Southern Japan continues.
Residents and visitors along the southern coast of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat July 16 2011
Location of Eye: 21.6º N Lat 137.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 270 km (145 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1135 km (613 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1625 km (877 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Early AM [12-1AM JST]
06-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 250 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1665 km (900 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sat July 16
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to maintain its WNW track within the next 12 hours before turning NW to NNW-ward through 48 hours. It shall enter the northeasternmost corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow, and may reach near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) by early Monday morning (July 18). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Regains Category 4 status as it prepares to enter the northeasternmost corner of the PAR...about 980 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUL 17: 22.0N 136.1E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Continues to intensify...enters PAR while turning NW...about 765 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUL 17: 23.4N 134.6E @ 220kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: At near-Super Typhoon strength after exiting PAR, turns NNW-ward...about 600 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUL 18: 25.2N 133.6E @ 230kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to weaken as it starts recurving northward...about 515 km ENE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUL 18: 27.3N 132.9E @ 220kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify through the next 12 to 36 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,665 kilometers (900 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to Category 3...starts recurving sharply towards the ENE as it moves just to the south of Japan's SW Coastline (Shikoku) [2PM JUL 19: 31.3N 133.4E @ 205kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to Category 2 as it begins Extratropical transition...moving Eastward near the coastal areas of Southern Honshu [2PM JUL 20: 33.8N 137.3E @ 175kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to Category 1 as it moves Eastward away from Japan...nears Extratropical status [2PM JUL 21: 34.5N 143.6E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation continues to display a 28-km eye w/ strong eyewall convection on all quadrants. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
EYE (28-KM) - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the japanese island of Iwo To. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 130 mm (low to med rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 16 JULY POSITION: 21.2N 137.8E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON A 15
NM EYE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THICKER AND MORE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
SHOWN IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE THE TIGHTER
ORGANIZATION, A 160510Z TRMM PASS REVEALS A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS CLEARLY IMPINGING ON
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
THE TUTT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY FRAGMENTED OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VIGOROUS. TY 08W IS UNDER 15 KNOTS OF
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 110
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK DATA T ASSESSMENTS OF 6.0 FROM BOTH PGTW
AND RJTD. THE PRIMARY EFFECT OF BINARY INTERACTION WITH TD 09W
APPEARS TO BE DECREASED ALONG-TRACK SPEED, AS THERE HAS BEEN NO
DISCERNABLE ALTERATION IN COURSE. THE STEERING MECHANISM FOR TY 09W
REMAINS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS STILL ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF
TOKYO. THE RIDGE IS GUIDING TY 09W STEADILY ALONG ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. SOUNDINGS FROM FUKUOKA AND KAGOSHIMA (KYUSHU) SHOW
SOUTHERLIES AND 500 MB HEIGHTS NEAR 5900 METERS, INDICATING THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOW OVER KYUSHU. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND
DEVELOP A NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION AFTER THE WEEKEND,
WHICH WILL OPEN A WEAKNESS AND ALLOW MA-ON TO TURN POLEWARD AND HEAD
FOR SOUTHERN JAPAN. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THE
BEGINNINGS OF THIS PROCESS, WHERE A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMING OUT OF
THE HIMALAYAS IS MERGING WITH A FINGER OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
POLAR FRONT JET OVER THE GULF OF BOHAI. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH HAS
AMPLIFIED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED IN THE TAU 24 THROUGH 48 RANGE, AS MA-ON ROUNDS THE RIDGE.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK ARE WARM ALL THE WAY THROUGH
COASTAL JAPAN, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. THEREFORE, LAND INTERACTION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS AND THEN HONSHU WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEAKENING MECHANISM, AND TY 08W SHOULD REMAIN AT
GREATER THAN TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT PASSES THE KANTO
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 6-12HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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