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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sat 30 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #021/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) has emerged over the Gulf of Tonkin after crossing the northern part of Hainan Island...now approaching the coast of Northern Vietnam.
Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sat July 30 2011
Location of Center: 20.3º N Lat 108.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km NW of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 2: 190 km WNW of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 135 km North of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 4: 250 km NNW of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 5: 225 km WSW of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 6: 200 km East of North Vietnam's Shoreline
Distance 7: 290 km ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Gulf of Tonkin-Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km (360 nm) / Avg/Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM HKT Sat July 30
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to resume its westerly track across the Gulf of Tonkin, until its final landfall along Northern Vietnam within the next 24 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SAT): Just along the coast of Northern Vietnam...about 165 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam [2PM JUL 30: 20.3N 107.2E @ 85kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Dissipating over Northern Vietnam, just a weak depression...about 80 km SSW of Hanoi, Vietnam [2AM JUL 31: 20.3N 105.7E @ 45kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated as an area of low pressure while moving into Laos ...about 175 km WSW of Hanoi, Vietnam [2PM JUL 31: 20.3N 104.3E @ 30kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center. NOCK-TEN is a average/large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.
NORTHERN VIETNAM: Making landfall along the coast...about 105 km ESE of Hanoi, Vietnam [ETA: between 7:00-9:00 PM PhT Tonight].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation has started to deteriorate due to land interaction and increasing upper-level winds (Moderate Vertical Wind Shear). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - weakening while over the Gulf of Tonkin. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the west coast of Hainan Island & the east coast of Northern Vietnam Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the rest of Hainan, Northern & Central Vietnam, and the coastal areas of Western Guangdong . Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (high) near the center of NOCK-TEN (JUANING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 0 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Western Hainan & Northern Vietnam today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Central & Northern Vietnam & Guangdong Province. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 30 JULY POSITION: 20.3N 109.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM 10W, NOCK-TEN, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT KNOCK-TEN HAS MAINTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTION DESPITE THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS AND WILL INCREASE ALONG TRACK.
CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEING DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON
SEVERAL SURFACE REPORTS IN THE AREA AS WELL AS A PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSIS. TS 10W IS TRACKING INTO THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF TONKIN, YET THE EFFECTS OF THE WARMER WATERS ARE BEING
MITIGATED BY INCREASING SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT IN STEERING KNOCK-TEN INTO THE VIETNAMESE COAST NEAR TAU
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
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