for Tuesday, 19 July 2011 [7:10 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 18 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 023
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 19 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #032/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The core of Typhoon MA-ON (INENG) now along the SE Coast of Shikoku...possible landfall expected along the Wakayama Peninsula tomorrow. Tropical Storm conditions expected across Southern-Eastern Shikoku through the evening.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue July 19 2011
Location of Eye: 33.0º N Lat 133.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km (32 nm) SSE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 2: 170 km (92 nm) WSW of Wakayama Peninsula
Distance 3: 190 km (103 nm) South of Okayama, Japan
Distance 4: 200 km (108 nm) SE of Hiroshima, Japan
Distance 5: 620 km (335 nm) WSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: SE Shikoku-Wakayama Area
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Morning [5-10AM JST]
6-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1055 km (570 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Tue July 19
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to be downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) later this evening...making landfall along the Southeastern part of Shikoku around midnight tonight...shall cross Wakayama Peninsula (Southern Honshu) by tomorrow morning, a few hours after sunrise. It shall track and bend more Eastward to ESE, passing well south of Tokyo on Thursday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (WED): Downgraded to a storm as it makes landfall along the SE portion of Shikoku...about 65 km East of Kochi, Japan [2AM JUL 20: 33.5N 134.3E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WED): Exits the Eastern Coast of Wakayama Peninsula (Southern Honshu), after crossing the area...tracking east to ESE-ward towards the Pacific Ocean...about 180 km SSE of Kyoto, Japan [2PM JUL 20: 33.6N 136.1E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to track ESE, re-intensifying over water...about 280 km SSE of Nagoya, Japan [2AM JUL 21: 32.9N 138.2E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Approaching typhoon strength once again...about 415 km SSE of Tokyo, Japan [2PM JUL 21: 32.0N 140.2E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected within the next 12-24 hours due to land interaction. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles) from the center. MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,055 kilometers (570 nautical miles) across.
SOUTHEASTERN SHIKOKU: Making landfall & crossing the area...about 35 km SE of Kochi City [ETA: between 2:00 to 4:00 AM JST early tomorrow].
WAKAYAMA PENINSULA, HONSHU: Making landfall & crossing the peninsula [ETA: between 9:00 AM-3:00 PM JST Tomorrow, July 20].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Regains Typhoon strength...turns ENE to NE-ward across the NW Pacific Ocean [2PM JUL 22: 31.5N 143.3E @ 120kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded once again into a TS as it rapidly accelerates NE-ward [2PM JUL 23: 33.9N 134.7E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Becoming Extratropical...weakens as it moves into cooler sea-surface temperatures (SST) [2PM JUL 24: 39.5N 152.8E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MA-ON's (INENG) very large circulation has started to deteriorate as it interacts with the rugged terrain of Shikoku. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DISSIPATING CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water or near the Southern Coast of Shikoku...not yet over land area. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
WEAKENING EYEWALL - spreading & affecting Southern Shikoku, and will reach Eastern Shikoku late tonight...and off Wakayama Peninsula by tomorrow morning. Near-Typhoon Conditions with Near-Typhoon Force Winds (86-118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Eastern Kyushu, Rest of Shikoku, & Wakayama Peninsula (off Southern Honshu) today until early tomorrow. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the whole of Japan except for Hokkaido. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Kyushu, Shikoku, & Southern Honshu today until Wednesday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan and the outlying islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Chichijima, Iwo To and other neaby areas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 19 JULY POSITION: 32.7N 133.3E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST-SOUTH-
WEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM SHIKOKU, JAPAN,
SHOWS A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT TO MAKE
LANDFALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD RANGING FROM 55 TO 70 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS WITH
LOW VETICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND IS MAINTAINING A MESOSCALE ANTI-
CYCLONE ALOFT THAT IS AIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER THE CYCLONE. A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS ALSO EVOLVED AS THE NORTHERN SIDE OF
THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE STRONG WESTERLIES. THIS
EXPOSURE HAS CAUSED ELONGATION ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
SYSTEM, WHICH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TY 08W HAS BEGUN
TO ROUND THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A FLAT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS VWS
INCREASED AND AS IT BRUSHES THE COASTS OF SHIKOKU AND HONSHU. IT
WILL THEN RECURVE EASTWARD AND DIP EQUATORWARD AFTER TAU 24 IN
RESPONSE TO A STEEP OMEGA-BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN.
DURING THIS MOMENTARY EQUATORWARD TRACK, THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS VWS RELAXES. AFTER TAU 72, TYPHOON MA-ON WILL TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS A SECONDARY STR ASSUMES STEERING. IT WILL THEN
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH GFDN AS A LEFT OUTLIER IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE SOLID
SECONDARY STEERING RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS ALONGSIDE CONSENSUS
UP TO TAU 48 THEN FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AFTERWARDS,
TO OFFSET GFDN'S UNLIKELY DEFLECTION...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 6-12HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
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