for Thursday, 14 July 2011 [8:00 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Thu 14 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #010
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MA-ON (08W) has been upgraded into a Typhoon last night...continues to intensify as it tracks westerly across the Western Pacific. A Tropical Storm Warning now being raised along the northermost Mariana Islands of Agrihan, Pagan & Alamagan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Thu July 14 2011
Location of Eye: 20.0º N Lat 148.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 290 km (157 nm) NE of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 870 km (470 nm) SE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1360 km (735 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2710 km (1463 nm) ESE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
6-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 80 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 870 km (470 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft (6.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Thu July 14
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to slowly turn WNW and steadily intensify for the next 2 days. It shall become a Super Typhoon (Category 4) by early Saturday morning (July 16). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (THU): Upgraded to Category 2 while passing to the north of the Marianas...about 180 km NNE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2PM JUL 14: 20.2N 146.2E @ 175kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Upgraded to Category 3 as it moves away from the northernmost Mariana Islands ...about 275 km NW of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2AM JUL 15: 20.5N 143.8E @ 205kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) while passing well to the south of Iwo To...about 435 km away [2PM JUL 15: 20.9N 141.6E @ 220kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Super Typhoon strength while to the SW of Iwo To...about 415 km away [2AM JUL 16: 21.4N 139.6E @ 240kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is now a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify throughout the 5-day forecast. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 215 kilometers (115 nautical miles). MA-ON is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 870 kilometers (470 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to a Category 5 Super Typhoon as it turns NW in the direction of SW Japan (Kyushu)...approaching the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2AM JUL 17: 22.8N 136.2E @ 250kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Moves out of the PAR after a short stay within this area of responsibility...downgraded from a Super Typhoon [2AM JUL 18: 25.0N 133.9E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3 as it approaches the coastal areas of Kyushu, Japan [2AM JUL 19: 28.4N 131.9E @ 185kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation is now exhibiting a 19-km cloud-filled eye w/ strong eyewall convection. Southwest and southern outer rainbands now spreading across the northernmost Mariana Islands. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting and spreading across Agrihan-Pagan-Alamagan of the Northern Marianas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 80 mm (medium) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1008 MB) almost stationary over the Philippine Sea, slightly organized Its possible center was located near lat 15.0N lon 133.5E...about 1290 km East of Luzon, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now @ 50% [Medium]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 14 JULY POSITION: 19.9N 148.6E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED, FORMING A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL
CONTINUOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. A 132115Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY
CONCENTRIC BANDS OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG A ZONE OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 08W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST OF
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 6-12HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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