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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Now initiating 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 29 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MUIFA (KABAYAN) has drifted NNE during the past few hours while over the Philippine Sea...intensified slightly.
Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines & the Southern Islands of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri July 29 2011
Location of Exposed Center: 13.0º N Lat 134.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 595 km (320 nm) NW of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 945 km (512 nm) ENE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 1020 km (550 nm) ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 4: 1060 km (572 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 1085 km (585 nm) East of Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 1115 km (600 nm) East of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 1170 km (632 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 1415 km (765 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 700 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Fri July 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying over the Northern Philippine Sea at a normal rate and will move on an "S-Shaped" track Northward within the next 24 to 48 hours, in the direction of the Southern Islands of Japan. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (FRI): Turns NNW to Northward while intensifying over the Philippine Sea...about 975 km East of Virac, Catanduanes [8PM JUL 29: 13.4N 133.2E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Nearing Typhoon strength as it continued moving Northward...about 1205 km East of Infanta, Quezon [8AM JUL 30: 14.5N 132.9E @ 110kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon...about 1145 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [8PM JUL 30: 15.9N 132.8E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Maintains its intensification trend as it moves Northward across the Northern Philippine Sea...about 1190 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [8AM JUL 31: 17.3N 132.9E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY MORNING: Continues to intensify while moving North to NNE across the North Philippine Sea [8AM AUG 01: 19.7N 133.6E @ 140kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Still intensifying...starts turning left of its track (NNW) toward the Ryukyus [8AM AUG 02: 21.7N 133.9E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: About to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...maintains its NNW movemement...moving closer to Ryukyus [8AM AUG 03: 24.4N 133.0E @ 150kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, MINDANAO, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation still being affected by moderate upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear) as it continues to consolidate. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - receding away from the Pacific Islands of Yap-Ulithi-Palau. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 700 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (clihttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ETRAP/2011/NWPacific/MUIFA/2011MUIFA.pmqpf.07290000.24.GIFck to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, MINDANAO, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 29 JULY POSITION: 12.6N 133.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ON THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 28/2021Z 37 GHZ SSMIS SHOWS A MORE DISCERNABLE LLCC, AND A
91 GHZ IMAGE FROM THE SAME TIME SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. A 28/0012Z
AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES CURVED BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVEMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 50 TO 55
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST SOUTH OF A
WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IN A REGION OF MODERATE (25-30 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY
RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS TS 11W HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY AS THE MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS BEGUN RETREATING
WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. 11W
IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST...(more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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