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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday July 12 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Wed 13 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #007
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MA-ON (08W) rapidly gaining strength as it moves WNW across the Western Pacific Ocean.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 08W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Wed July 13 2011
Location of Center: 19.7º N Lat 152.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 700 km (378 nm) ENE of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 1255 km (677 nm) SE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1800 km (972 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 3150 km (1700 nm) ESE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 450 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Wed July 13
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to remain as a "straight-runner" (moving WNW-ward) and steadily intensify for the next 2 days. It shall become a Typhoon tomorrow morning (Thursday). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (WED): Approaching typhoon status while over the Western Pacific...about 535 km ENE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [8PM JUL 13: 20.0N 150.5E @ 110kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (THU): At typhoon status (Category 1)...about 330 km NE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [8AM JUL 14: 20.4N 148.2E @ 130kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (THU): Passing well to the north of the Marianas...about 235 km NNE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [8PM JUL 14: 20.8N 145.9E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Still intensifying, passing between Agrihan & Iwo To Islands...about 340 km NW of Agrihan Island, CNMI [8AM JUL 15: 21.2N 143.7E @ 150kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify throughout the 5-day forecast. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. MA-ON is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY MORNING: Attains Category 2 strength while passing well to the SW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8AM JUL 16: 22.0N 139.6E @ 165kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Attains Category 3 status...turns more a little northwestward and slows down slightly...approaching the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [8AM JUL 17: 22.9N 136.2E @ 185kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Exits the PAR, after briefly passing the boundary...continues to intensify as it moves closer to the Southern Islands of Japan [8AM JUL 18: 25.1N 133.8E @ 205kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON's (08W) radial circulation continues to improve w/ the development of an eye-like feature within the central dense overcast (CDO). Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Western Pacific)...possible "Eye" forming underneath. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water...not affecting any land areas. However, it will start to affect Agrihan-Pagan-Alamagan of the Northern Marianas later tonight or early Thursday morning. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 450 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1008 MB) slowly consolidating while over the Philippine Sea...drifting Eastward. Its possible center was located near lat 15.7N lon 134.3E...about 1305 km East of Luzon, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system has increased to 50% [Medium]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 13 JULY POSITION: 19.6N 152.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM A CONCENTRIC
RING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS OF THE
NOAA-BD REVERSE ANIMATION SHOWS SOME FRAGMENTATION OF THE CONCENTRIC
DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF
THE STORM ALONG WITH A TREND OF WARMING CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE ENTIRE
RING OF CONVECTION. A 122302Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEWLY FORMED RING AND FRAGMENTED
FEEDER BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 12/2314Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE GALE
FORCE WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC.
WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF TS 08W HAS CONTINUED
TO MOVE WESTWARD, THEREBY HAVING LESS OF AN IMPACT ON THE STORM.
ADDITIONALLY, AS TS 08W CONTINUES TO COALESCE AND INTENSIFY, IT IS
STARTING TO DEVELOP ITS OWN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TS 08W CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE AWAY FROM
THE QUASISTATIONARY TUTT CELL POSITIONED FURTHER TO THE EAST NEAR THE
DATELINE, HOWEVER, THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE TROUGHING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT IS DEEPENING AND DIGGING EQUATORWARD WHICH
IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE EASTWARD OUTFLOW. THERE IS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 122212Z TRMM 37GHZ
IMAGE AND THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON (BUT ASSESSED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN) DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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