for Sunday, 17 July 2011 [1:24 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 17 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, sms, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
MAJOR TYPHOON MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Sun 17 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #023/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MA-ON (INENG) has entered the northeasternmost corner of the PAR...continues to threaten the southern coastline of Japan. This howler will not directly affect the Philippines, but will slightly enhance the SW Monsoon (Habagat) and bring occasional showers along Visayas & Mindanao.
Residents and visitors along the southern coast of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Sun July 17 2011
Location of Eye: 24.6º N Lat 134.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 20 km (11 nm) within P.A.R.
Distance 2: 665 km (360 nm) SE of Naje, Japan
Distance 3: 735 km (397 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1390 km (750 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Early AM [5-6AM JST]
06hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 130 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1665 km (900 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Sun July 17
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy with possible occasional squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to maintain its NW track within the next 12 hours before turning more to the NNW to North through 48 hours. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (SUN): About to exit PAR...regains Category 4 status...about 685 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [8PM JUL 17: 24.9N 134.4E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (MON): At near-Super Typhoon strength, turns NNW...about 565 km East of Okinawa, Japan [8AM JUL 18: 26.7N 133.5E @ 230kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (MON): Weakens slightly as it turns poleward (north)...about 320 km East of Naje, Japan [8PM JUL 18: 28.6N 133.1E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Continues to weaken as it recurves towards the NE...approaching the southern coastline of Japan (Shikoku-Honshu Area)...about 335 km South of Kochi City, Japan [8AM JUL 19: 30.5N 133.4E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to slowly intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,665 kilometers (900 nautical miles) across.
METROPOLITAN TOKYO: About 135 km to the South of Tokyo [ETA: between 5:00-6:00 AM Tomorrow].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 2...makes landfall over Southern Honshu (Japan) [8AM JUL 20: 33.6N 135.8E @ 175kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 1 as it begins Extratropical transition...moves Eastward...passing close to the south of Tokyo [8AM JUL 21: 34.5N 140.0E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Tropical Storm (TS) as it becomes Extratropical...moving East to ESE across the open seas of the Western Pacific [8AM JUL 22: 33.7N 145.4E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MA-ON's (INENG) powerful circulation is currently undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) and continues to display a 24-km irregular eye with an intense eyewall convection surrounding the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
IRREGULAR EYE (24-KM) - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the japanese islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
06HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 80 mm (low to med rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (medium-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy with possible occasional squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy with possible occasional squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 17 JULY POSITION: 23.4N 135.6E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 765 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAKENING INNER EYEWALL WITH A 13 NM (EYE TEMPERATURE OF
+3C) IRREGULAR EYE AND A DEVELOPING OUTER EYEWALL. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY TO INCLUDE A 161939Z SSMI IMAGE AND 162141Z TRMM IMAGE
CLEARLY INDICATE THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS WELL
UNDERWAY WITH A NEAR COMPLETE OUTER EYEWALL AND AN ERODING INNER
EYEWALL. MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LARGE 300-360
NM RADIUS SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING AS FAR WEST
AS 220 NM. OVERALL, OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHICH HAS IMPROVED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE TUTT HAS
WEAKENED. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MINOR WOBBLE
INDICATED IN ANIMATED IMAGERY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. TY 08W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AFTER THE
ERC IS COMPLETE AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 06HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
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