for Saturday, 30 July 2011 [7:25 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 30 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #018/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MUIFA (KABAYAN) continued moving northward into the North Philippine Sea...slightly intensified.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, the Southern Islands of Japan & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat July 30 2011
Location of Center: 15.5º N Lat 134.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 1,090 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1,190 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 1,285 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 1,355 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 5: 1,400 km ENE of Metro Manila
Distance 6: 1,405 km SE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,385 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 8: 1,675 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sat July 30
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying over the Northern Philippine Sea at a normal rate and will maintain moving on an "S-Shaped" Northward track through 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SAT): Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon while tracking northward slowly...about 1,240 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM JUL 30: 16.0N 133.7E @ 120kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Continues to intensify over the North Philippine Sea...about 1,190 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM JUL 31: 17.2N 133.6E @ 140kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Upgraded to a Category 2 Typhoon...about 1,290 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM JUL 31: 18.2N 133.9E @ 160kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its intensification trend as it moves Northward across the Northern Philippine Sea...about 1,315 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2AM AUG 01: 19.0N 134.0E @ 165kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to turn NNW toward Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands [2AM AUG 02: 21.3N 133.9E @ 165kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifying...starts turning more to the left of its track (NW) toward the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands [2AM AUG 03: 23.9N 132.9E @ 175kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...turns WNW-ward closer to the Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands [2AM AUG 04: 25.9N 131.2E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CENTRAL & NORTHERN MINDANAO, VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation has become better organized w/ improving shear environment (light upper-level winds). A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is present over the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (off the Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ near-typhoon force winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea & Western Micronesia)...no longer affecting land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing on-&-off showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CENTRAL & NORTHERN MINDANAO, VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO & METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 30 JULY POSITION: 14.7N 134.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION SURGING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291636Z AMSRE PASS SHOWS GOOD
ORGANIZATION, INCLUDING A MICROWAVE EYE, AS WELL AS DEEP CONVECTION
OVERALL SECTORS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SUPPRESSION
OF OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM HAS EASED, AND
OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, THE BEGINNINGS OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO A TUTT CELL ARE EVIDENT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-
ESTABLISHED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
55 KNOTS FROM PGTW. THE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED IN A POLEWARD
PATTERN BY THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY AN
ANTICYCLONE NEAR 11N 150E. THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS TOWARDS A VAST
WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE
BONIN HIGH, WHICH HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THE DATELINE. THE POLEWARD
TRACK AND THE EXTENSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL
GUIDANCE. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AFTER
TAU 48, BUT WHERE AND TO WHAT DEGREE THAT TURN OCCURS IS A MATTER OF
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE. AFTER TAU 48, THE DISPARITY IS BOTH
SUBSTANTIAL AND IMPACTIVE. ECMWF AND EGRR STEER THE STORM WESTWARD
SOONER, RESULTING IN A TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA. MEANWHILE, GFS,
NOGAPS, GFDN, AND WBAR GUIDE THE SYSTEM NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS, WITH A RESULTANT TRACK THAT GOES WELL NORTH OF OKINAWA. JGSM
AND CONSENSUS ARE IN THE MIDDLE. THE INTENSITY TREND WILL BE A
MATTER OF WHETHER OR NOT THE STORM CAN MAINTAIN A CIRCULATION OVER
THE TOP OF THE LLCC AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD AND COCOON ITSELF FROM
THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR. GFDN IS INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION, WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE POINTS TO A NEAR-
CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE. BASED ON THE RAPID ORGANIZATION
AND PRONOUNCED COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS SHOWN ON RECENT INFRARED
ANIMATION, THE JTWC FORECAST STAYS ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE,
CLOSE TO GFDN...(more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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