for Monday, 18 July 2011 [7:42 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 17 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 18 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #026/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MA-ON (INENG) weakens to a Category 2 Typhoon...moving Northward. Its outer rainbands are now spreading across Southern & Western Japan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern coastal areas of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon July 18 2011
Location of Eye: 26.6º N Lat 133.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km (97 nm) North of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 425 km (230 nm) SE of Naje, Japan
Distance 3: 565 km (305 nm) East of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 625 km (337 nm) SSE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 5: 1355 km (732 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Southern Coast of Japan
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Morning [6-9AM JST]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 1390 km (750 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Sun July 17
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY WEAK >> Mostly sunny to some cloudy periods with possible passing occasional squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, MINDANAO, & WESTERN LUZON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to maintain its NNW to northerly track within the next 12 hours before recurving towards the NE through 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (MON): Slowly re-intensifies as it moves Northward...about 305 km ESE of Naje, Japan [2PM JUL 18: 27.8N 132.8E @ 175kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (TUE): Regains Category 4 status, turns NNE in the direction of Shikoku-Southern Honshu Area...about 300 km SE of Kagoshima, Japan [2AM JUL 19: 29.6N 132.6E @ 205kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (TUE): Weakens slightly while moving NE-ward, approaching the coast of Shikoku...about 235 km SSW of Kochi, Japan [2PM JUL 19: 31.4N 133.2E @ 195kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 2 as it passes close to the coast of Shikoku, with its center to make a coastal landfall along the Wakayama Peninsula (6 hours later)...about 130 km SE of Kochi City, Japan [2AM JUL 20: 32.7N 134.5E @ 165kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some strengthening of this system will be expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,390 kilometers (750 nautical miles) across.
METROPOLITAN TOKYO: About 200 km to the South of Tokyo [ETA: between 6:00-9:00 AM JST Thursday, July 21].
WAKAYAMA PENINSULA, HONSHU: Just along the southern shorelines of the peninsula [ETA: between 12:00-3:00 PM JST Wednesday, July 20].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 1...tracking Eastward near the coast of Southern Honshu (SW of Tokyo) [2AM JUL 21: 33.9N 138.6E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it begins Extratropical transition...moving farther away from the SE Coast of Honshu and into the Northwest Pacific Basin [2AM JUL 22: 33.9N 144.4E @ 110kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes Extratropical...maintains its Eastward track across the NW Pacific [2AM JUL 23: 34.8N 150.5E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MA-ON's (INENG) circulation remains large but has weakened continuously since last night. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Southern & Western Japan (Kyushu-Shikoku-Western & Southern Honshu), & the small japanese islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
06-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to med rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (medium-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY WEAK >> Mostly sunny to some cloudy periods with possible passing occasional squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, MINDANAO, & WESTERN LUZON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY WEAK >> Mostly sunny to some cloudy periods with possible passing occasional squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS, MINDANAO, & WESTERN LUZON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 18 JULY POSITION: 26.0N 133.4E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TY 08W HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO COMPLETE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC).
HOWEVER, THE 18-20Z IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME INITIAL STRENGTHENING OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, PERHAPS SIGNALING A
RE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE. REGARDLESS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY AS OF
18Z WAS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 08W CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WOBBLE BUT
NOW APPEARS TO BE HEADED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO THE WEAK WESTERLIES LOCATED JUST NORTH OF JAPAN. MA-ON
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD NEAR 32N
LATITUDE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THE 17/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE
A WEAKENING, RECEDING STEERING RIDGE AND HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING AND INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING ECMWF/JMA ENSEMBLE TRACKS REMAIN TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED SO THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK. BASED ON THE
RECENT WEAKENING, THE PEAK INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 110 KNOTS. TY
08W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120, WELL EAST OF JAPAN...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 06-12HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
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