for Tuesday, 12 July 2011 [5:57 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday July 12 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 12 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #004
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
08W now a Tropical Storm...internationally known as MA-ON, a Chinese word for a horse saddle. This system may threaten the Southern Islands of Japan beginning this weekend thru early next week.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 08W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue July 12 2011
Location of Center: 18.9º N Lat 155.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 990 km (535 nm) East of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 1555 km (840 nm) SE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 2105 km (1135 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 3455 km (1865 nm) ESE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 760 km (410 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 ft (3.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Tue July 12
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to continue moving WNW across the open seas of the Western Pacific and steadily intensify for the next 2 days. It shall reach Typhoon strength on Thursday afternoon July 14. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for MA-ON (08W).
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (WED): Continues to intensify while over the Western Pacific Ocean...about 825 km ENE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2AM JUL 13: 19.4N 153.4E @ 75kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WED): Maintain its WNW track across the ocean...about 615 km ENE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2PM JUL 13: 20.0N 151.3E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: At near-Typhoon intensity...about 415 km NE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2AM JUL 14: 20.6N 149.0E @ 100kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...about 300 km NNE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2PM JUL 14: 21.2N 146.7E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify throughout the 5-day forecast. MA-ON is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 760 kilometers (410 nautical miles) across.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying further while passing to the south of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [2PM JUL 15: 22.2N 141.9E @ 140kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Category 2 status...bends slightly Westward as it slows down over the Western Pacific Ocean [2PM JUL 16: 22.6N 138.8E @ 160kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Nearing Category 3 status as it moves more Northwesterly, near the NE border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM JUL 17: 23.8N 136.8E @ 175kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy with possible occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON's (08W) circulation continues to organize, with most of its convective rainbands located south of its low-level center. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of 08W (UNNAMED). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1010 MB) remains quasi-stationary east of Northern Luzon or off the Philippine Sea. Its possible center was located near lat 16.6N lon 132.8E...about 1110 km East of Isabela, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 20% [Low]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy with possible occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Cloudy with possible occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 12 JULY POSITION: 18.7N 155.5E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS MILD IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION AROUND WHAT
REMAINS A BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHPERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ALSO SUPPRESSING
OUTFLOW. AN 112337Z AMSUB IMAGE REVEALS DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE LLCC, WHILE AN 112201Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS SHOWS A LACK OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND GENERALLY DIFFUSE
ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM'S ENERGY REMAINS DISPERSED OVER A BROAD
REGION, WITH BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT EXTENDING WELL
AWAY FROM THE CORE. THE CURRENT FIX IS BASED ON MSI AND THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE RJTD FIX. THERE IS ALSO EXACT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN AGENCIES ON INTENSITY. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS BUT RISES STEADILY ALONG TRACK. POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL
VARY WIDELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS TS 08W INTERACTS WITH THE
TUTT. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TIME, HOWEVER, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS A
SUPPRESSING MECHANISM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK AVERAGE
31 DEGREES. THE STEERING MECHANISM FOR TS 08W IS AN ANTICYLONE
CENTERED JUST EAST OF TOKYO, WHICH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM ALONG A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGH TAU 72. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE,
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER TRACK UNCERTAINTY AS THEY STRUGGLE TO
RESOLVE POSSIBLE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION
CURRENTLY OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA SIMULTANEOUS WITH A SOUTHEASTWARD
RE-ORIENTATION AND WEAKENING OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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