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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 18 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 026
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Wed 20 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #036/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MA-ON (INENG) continues to weaken while tracking East to ESE-ward near the Southern Coast of Honshu, back towards the NW Pacific Ocean. Its effects along Southern Honshu has started to diminish.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed July 20 2011
Location of Center: 33.4º N Lat 137.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km (98 nm) ESE of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 2: 215 km (115 nm) ESE of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 3: 205 km (110 nm) SSE of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 4: 335 km (182 nm) SW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: ESE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: NW Pacific Ocean
6hr Rainfall Accum (South of center): 100 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Wed July 20
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to begin moving ESE-ward away from Japan's Coastline and shall re-intensify slightly within the next 24 to 36 hours...turning ENE to NE-ward on Friday afternoon (48 hours) while over the open waters of the NW Pacific Ocean. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Maintains its strength while moving ESE into the NW Pacific Ocean, away from Japan's coastline...about 330 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan [2AM JUL 21: 32.8N 139.0E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): At near-Typhoon strength...maintains its ESE movement...about 450 km SSE of Tokyo, Japan [2PM JUL 21: 31.8N 141.1E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING (THU): Maintains its strength but slows down as it starts turning towards the east...about 570 km SSE of Tokyo, Japan [2AM JUL 22: 31.3N 142.9E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Starts moving NE-ward w/ no change in strength...about 635 km SE of Tokyo, Japan [2PM JUL 22: 31.4N 144.2E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Strong Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. A little change in strength is expected. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 250 kilometers (135 nautical miles) from the center. MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Starts losing strength while accelerating NE-ward across the open waters of the NW Pacific...becoming Extratropical [2PM JUL 23: 34.4N 147.2E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continues losing strength as it rapidly accelerates NE-ward into the much cooler sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) & unfavorable environment of the NW Pacific [2PM JUL 24: 39.1N 151.3E @ 95kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further...attains Extratropical status [2PM JUL 25: 44.4N 157.4E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MA-ON's (INENG) circulation not looking good on recent satellite & radar imageries...most of its convective rainclouds are now located over the ocean. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING EYEWALL - now over water...not affecting any land or coastal areas. Near-Typhoon Conditions with Near-Typhoon Force Winds (86-118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Coastal areas of Kii Peninsula & Southern Honshu, west of Tokyo. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Shikoku, Central & Southern Honshu including Metropolitan Tokyo. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG), especially along the southern portion. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 0 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of the Kii Peninsula & other parts of Southern Honshu today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan and the outlying islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Chichijima, Iwo To and other neaby areas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 20 JULY POSITION: 33.6N 137.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A 20-NM RAGGED
EYE HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
DISPLACED THE CENTRAL CONVECTION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A REFLECTIVITY RADAR LOOP
FROM JAPAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES, PGTS AND RJTD RANGING FROM 35 TO 65
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 10 DEGREES NORTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VWS. THE STORM
IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF A FLATTENED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT EQUATORWARD DIP OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, THE SYSTEM WILL SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY WITH
FAVORABLE ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 CELSIUS PLUS) AND
SLIGHTLY RELAXED VWS (10-15 KTS). AFTER TAU 48, THE STEERING STR
WILL REINTENSIFY CAUSING THE TC TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN JAPAN. THE POLEWARD
PROGRESSION AND THE CHANGE IN TRAJECTORY WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN
VWS, ERODING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITIONS INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. TS 08W WILL BECOME FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR FAVORING A FLATTER
EASTWARD TRACK LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. ADDITIONALLY, JGSM DEFLECTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER TAU 36. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO
THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AND BECOMES FASTER THAN CONSENSUS AFTER TAU
48 TO OFFSET WBAR...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 6HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
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