for Thursday, 14 July 2011 [1:00 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Thu 14 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MA-ON (08W) now passing north of the Marianas...now at Category 2. A Tropical Storm Warning remains hoisted along the northernmost Mariana Islands of Agrihan, Pagan & Alamagan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Thu July 14 2011
Location of Eye: 20.2º N Lat 146.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 185 km (100 nm) NNE of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 730 km (395 nm) SE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1190 km (643 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2540 km (1370 nm) East of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Ryukyu-Kyushu Area
6hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 80 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Thu July 14
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to turn WNW and steadily intensify for the next 2 days. It shall become a Super Typhoon (Category 4) by Saturday morning (July 16). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (THU): Upgraded to Category 3 while passing to the NNW of the Marianas...about 215 km NNW of Agrihan Island, CNMI [8PM JUL 14: 20.4N 144.6E @ 185kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (FRI): Still intensifying while passing to the South of Iwo To...about 455 km SSE of the island [8AM JUL 15: 20.8N 142.3E @ 205kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (FRI): Strengthens to near-Super Typhoon (Category 4)...about 415 km SSW of Iwo To [8PM JUL 15: 21.2N 140.2E @ 220kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Attains Super Typhoon strength as it nears the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 455 km SW of Iwo To [8AM JUL 16: 21.7N 138.4E @ 240kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is now a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify through the next 48 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 45 kilometers (25 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). MA-ON is now a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY MORNING: Strengthens to a Category 5 Super Typhoon as it turns NW in the direction of SW Japan (Kyushu)...enters the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [8AM JUL 17: 23.4N 135.2E @ 250kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Moves out of the PAR...downgraded to Category 4 from a Category 5 Super Typhoon [8AM JUL 18: 25.9N 132.9E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3 as it approaches the coastal areas of Kyushu, Japan [8AM JUL 19: 28.8N 131.8E @ 185kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation continues to exhibit a ragged & cloud-filled eye w/ strong eyewall convection. Southwestern and southern outer rainbands continues to spread across the northernmost Mariana Islands. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAGGED/CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - now affecting & spreading across Agrihan Island (Northernmost Marianas). Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - still affecting & spreading across Pagan & Alamagan Islands (Northernmost Marianas). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 80 mm (medium) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1008 MB) remains over the Philippine Sea, as it is being pushed slowly WSW-ward by the mighty Typhoon MA-ON located to its NE...slightly disorganized Its possible center was located near lat 14.6N lon 132.9E...about 930 km ENE of Bicol Region, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 50% [Medium]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 14 JULY POSITION: 20.1N 147.0E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED JUST NORTH OF WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED, FORMING A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL
CONTINUOUS DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND A 5-NM PINHOLE EYE. A 132115Z
TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY
CONCENTRIC BANDS OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 90 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND
HAS MAINTAINED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD. THIS FEATURE IS
PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG A ZONE OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 08W IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED EAST OF
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 6HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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