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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight & 3:00 AM) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Fri 29 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) approaching the SE Coast of Hainan Island...possible strengthening likely as landfall over the island expected by tonight.
Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam & Southern China particularly Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri July 29 2011
Location of Center: 18.1º N Lat 112.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 280 km (150 nm) SE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 350 km (190 nm) SE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 380 km (205 nm) SE of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 4: 360 km (195 nm) East of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 5: 455 km (245 nm) ESE of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 6: 435 km (235 nm) SSE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 7: 475 km (255 nm) SSW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Hainan Island
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.7 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM HKT Fri July 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to continue moving WNW towards Hainan. This system is expected to make landfall over Hainan later tonight. It shall be over the Gulf of Tonkin on Saturday afternoon & evening. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Near-typhoon strength as it approaches the coast of SE Hainan...about 130 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan [2PM JUL 29: 18.5N 111.5E @ 110kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Crossing the south-central part of Hainan Island...about 70 km WSW of Qionghai, Hainan [2AM JUL 30: 18.9N 109.9E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Weakens slightly as it moves out of Hainan into the Gulf of Tonkin...about 35 km South of Dongfang, Hainan [2PM JUL 30: 18.8N 108.7E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Reintensifies while over the warm waters of the Gulf of Tonkin...approaching the coast of Northern Vietnam...about 290 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam [2AM JUL 31: 18.7N 107.1E @ 100kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. NOCK-TEN is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA: Making landfall along the Southeast Coast south of Qionghai & exit south of Dongfang [ETA: between 9:00 PM HKT Friday, July 29 to 3:00 PM Saturday, July 30].
NORTHERN VIETNAM: Making landfall along the coast...about 255 km South of Hanoi, Vietnam [ETA: between 2:00-3:00 PM PhT Sunday, July 31].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipating over Laos, just a TD [2AM AUG 01: 18.4N 104.8E @ 55kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated into an area of Low Pressure just north of Vientaine, Laos [2AM AUG 02: 18.4N 102.7E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation has changed - with its convective rainclouds becoming more concentrated along the southern & western quadrants. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water (South China Sea)...but is now spreading & affecting the eastern coast of Hainan Island Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Rest of Hainan Island & the coastal areas of Guangdong Province & Northern Vietnam . Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of NOCK-TEN (JUANING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 29 JULY POSITION: 18.0N 113.3E.
*TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE (IR) IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES
WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC WITH
LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CURVING INTO THE STORM. A 28/1758Z AMSU-B 89
GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS THE LLCC POSITIONED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTION. THE 28/1200Z UPPER AIR STREAM
LINE ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGHING NORTH OF THE STORM, WHICH IS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE AND APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TS 10W. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT, AND THE
POLEWARD CHANNEL REMAINS INTACT WITH THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSU-B PASS WITH POOR CONFIDENCE, AND INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45-50 KNOTS. THE STEERING INFLUENCE
CONTINUES TO BE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA AND NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE CLOSER
TOGETHER ON THE TRACK MOTION WITH EACH MODEL RUN; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OUTPUT...(more info)
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
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