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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Thu 14 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #012
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large Typhoon MA-ON (08W) continues to pass north of the Northernmost Mariana Islands. A Tropical Storm Warning remains hoisted along the northernmost Mariana Islands of Agrihan, Pagan & Alamagan. Meanwhile, LPA 92W becoming better organized over the Philippine Sea, hundreds of miles away from Bicol Region. This LPA may likely develop into a Tropical Depression within the next 06-24 hours (check out the "Tropical Cyclone Watch" section below).
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu July 14 2011
Location of Eye: 20.2º N Lat 145.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 165 km (90 nm) North of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 675 km (365 nm) SE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1105 km (597 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2460 km (1348 nm) East of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Ryukyu-Kyushu Area
6hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 1110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft (7.3 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Thu July 14
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to turn WNW-ward and steadily intensify for the next 2 days. It shall become a Super Typhoon (Category 4) by Saturday (July 16). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Upgraded to Category 3 while passing to the NW of the Northernmost Marianas...about 270 km NW of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2AM JUL 15: 20.5N 143.9E @ 185kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Still intensifying while passing to the South of Iwo To...about 435 km South of the island [2PM JUL 15: 20.9N 141.7E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to near-Super Typhoon (Category 4)...about 420 km SSW of Iwo To [2AM JUL 16: 21.3N 139.7E @ 220kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Attains Super Typhoon strength...nearing the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 480 km SW of Iwo To [2PM JUL 16: 22.0N 137.7E @ 240kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify through the next 48 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). MA-ON is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to a Category 5 Super Typhoon as it turns NW in the direction of SW Japan (Kyushu)...enters the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM JUL 17: 23.6N 134.8E @ 250kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Moves out of the PAR...downgraded to Category 4 from a Category 5 Super Typhoon...heading towards Kyushu, Japan [2PM JUL 18: 26.5N 133.0E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to Category 3 as it bears down the coast of Kyushu, Japan [2PM JUL 19: 29.4N 131.9E @ 185kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation continues to exhibit a ragged & cloud-filled eye w/ strong eyewall convection. The southern inner & outer rainbands continues to spread across the northernmost Mariana Islands. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAGGED/CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Agrihan Island (Northernmost Marianas). Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Pagan & Alamagan Islands (Northernmost Marianas). Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1006 MB) strengthening over the Philippine Sea, as it is being pushed slowly SW-ward by the mighty Typhoon MA-ON located to its NE. This LPA is likely to become a Tropical Depression within the next 06-24 hours. Its possible center was located near lat 13.6N lon 132.0E...about 820 km East of Bicol Region, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now @ 80% [High]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 14 JULY POSITION: 20.1N 146.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140328Z AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A RAGGED EYE WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC FROM ALL QUADRANTS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE 14/0532Z PGTW FIX AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSRE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF
90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 08W IS LOCATED
BENEATH A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IN A REGION OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT AND LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING THE
SYSTEM WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS LOCATED TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS
IT TRACKS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (>30 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND REMAINS WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEING TRACKING INCREASINGLY
POLEWARD AS IT MODIFIES THE STEERING RIDGE, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
RECEDE TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH, WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD, TY 08W IS NOT EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN KYUSHU. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH
TAU 48, BEFORE NOTABLE DIVERGENCE OCCURS. NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING A SHARPER RE-CURVATURE IN RESPONSE TO AN EARLIER
WEAKENING AND RECEDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GFDN IS ALSO
DEPICTING A SHARP RE-CURVATURE, BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER TAU 96. EGRR
REMAINS THE WESTERN OUTLIER AND CONTINUES TO TRACK THE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 IN ANTICIPATION OF DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE EAST
PHILIPPINE SEA, BEFORE SHARPLY TURNING THE SYSTEM POLEWARD. THIS
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK, FAVORING A
TRACK SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 96 IN FAVOR OF A MORE
SOLID STR AND MARGINAL DCI. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LATER TAUS, THE FORECAST AT TAU 120 IS SLIGHT
LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS JTWC FORECASTS
UNTIL MODEL GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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