for Tuesday, 19 July 2011 [7:51 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 18 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 19 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #030/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MA-ON (INENG) continues to lose strength, downgraded to Category 1...approaching the coastal areas of Eastern Kyushu & Shikoku. Its rainbands spreading across the whole of Japan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon July 18 2011
Location of Eye: 31.6º N Lat 132.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 210 km (113 nm) East of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 2: 220 km (120 nm) SSW of Kochi, Japan
Distance 3: 335 km (180 nm) SW of Wakayama Peninsula
Distance 4: 550 km (297 nm) SW of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 5: 785 km (422 nm) WSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Southern Honshu Area
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Morning [5-10AM JST]
6-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 100 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1155 km (625 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Tue July 19
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to continue losing strength as it veers towards the NE and make landfall along the Southeastern, Eastern Shikoku & Wakayama Peninsula (Southern Honshu) within the next 24 to 36 hours. It shall track more to the East to ESE, passing south of Tokyo by early Thursday morning (48 hours). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
THIS AFTERNOON (TUE): Moving NNE very near the Southern Coast of Shikoku, Japan...about 115 km SSW of Kagoshima, Japan [2PM JUL 19: 32.5N 133.3E @ 140kph]. EARLY TOMORROW MORNING (WED): Weakens slightly as it moves NE-ward...making landfall along the SE-Eastern Shikoku...about 105 km ENE of Kochi, Japan [2AM JUL 20: 33.8N 134.7E @ 130kph]. TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WED): Just along the east coast of Wakayama Peninsula after crossing the area...just barely a typhoon...about 145 km SSW of Nagoya, Japan [2PM JUL 20: 33.9N 136.6E @ 120kph]. THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) just south of the coast of Southern Honshu, as it accelerates towards the ESE across the NW Pacific Ocean...about 245 km SW of Tokyo, Japan [2AM JUL 21: 33.7N 138.6E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected within the next 12-24 hours due to land interaction. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,155 kilometers (625 nautical miles) across. SOUTHEASTERN-EASTERN SHIKOKU: Making landfall...about 50 km ESE of Kochi City [ETA: between 10:00 PM-12:00 AM JST Tonight]. WAKAYAMA PENINSULA, HONSHU: Making landfall along the peninsula [ETA: between 6:00 AM-1:00 PM JST Tomorrow, July 20]. METROPOLITAN TOKYO: About 250 km to the SSW of the metropolis [ETA: between 5:00-10:00 AM JST Thursday, July 21]. FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving NE-ward across the Northwest Pacific Ocean...weakens slightly [2AM JUL 22: 32.4N 142.9E @ 100kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Continuing moving NE-ward...re-strengthens slightly [2AM JUL 23: 34.6N 147.4E @ 110kph]. SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becoming Extratropical...maintains its NE track [2AM JUL 24: 37.1N 151.6E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MA-ON's (INENG) very large circulation continues to hold on near the coast of Eastern Kyushu but losing strength. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: CLOUD-FILLED EYE - remains over water (or near the coast of Eastern Kyushu)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - remains over water (or near the coast of Eastern Kyushu)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the coastal areas of Eastern Kyushu, Shikoku, & Wakayama Peninsula (off Southern Honshu) today. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the whole of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 6-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 100 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic). COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Kyushu, Shikoku, & Southern Honshu today until Wednesday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan and the outlying islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Chichijima, Iwo To and other neaby areas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY WEAK >> Mostly sunny to some cloudy periods with possible passing drizzles, showers, & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 19 JULY POSITION: 30.8N 132.8E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 448 NM SOUTHWEST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED
SPIRAL BANDING EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER OF TY MA-ON WITH
THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
QUADRANT. A 181752Z 89 GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH DIFFLUENCE IMPROVING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR IS WRAPPING INTO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT, WHICH MAY BE SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. MA-ON CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY EASTWARD NEAR 33N LATITUDE AS WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO MODIFY THE STEERING RIDGE. AS THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EAST OF JAPAN AND A MORE
DOMINANT RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST, MA-ON IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD DIP IN TRACK AFTER TAU 48. TY 08W IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING
SLIGHTLY AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN OF SHIKOKU AND
HONSHU, JAPAN. INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS MA-ON
TREKS EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN THROUGH TAU 72. INCREASED
DIFFLUENCE, CONTINUED FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW MA-ON TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AT TAU 96
BEFORE BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 6-12HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment