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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday July 12 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Wed 13 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #006
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MA-ON (08W) intensifying over the Western Pacific...maintains its WNW track towards the Southern Islands of Japan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 08W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Wed July 13 2011
Location of Center: 19.3º N Lat 153.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 780 km (420 nm) ENE of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 1350 km (728 nm) SE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1890 km (1020 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 3240 km (1750 nm) ESE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 ft (3.9 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Wed July 13
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to continue moving steadily WNW across the warm Western Pacific and intensify for the next 2 days. It shall become a Typhoon tomorrow afternoon, July 14. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for MA-ON (08W).
THIS AFTERNOON (WED): Continues to intensify while over the Western Pacific Ocean...about 620 km ENE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2PM JUL 14: 19.7N 151.4E @ 85kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Near Typhoon strength...about 395 km ENE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2AM JUL 14: 20.2N 149.1E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...about 415 km NE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2PM JUL 14: 20.6N 146.7E @ 120kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon, passing well to the north of the Marianas...about 240 km NNE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2PM JUL 14: 21.2N 146.7E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify throughout the 5-day forecast. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center. MA-ON is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifying further after passing well to the south of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [2AM JUL 16: 21.8N 139.6E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Attains Category 2 status...turns more a little northwestward and slows down [2AM JUL 17: 22.7N 136.2E @ 160kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Just passing by the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Reponsibility (PAR), turning more NW towards Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands [2AM JUL 18: 24.8N 133.5E @ 175kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to cloudy with possible occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON's (08W) circulation has improved further, with a more radial look but symmetrical. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS (with a developing CDO) - over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 400 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1010 MB) disorganized over the Philippine Sea with pulsating convective rainclouds. Its possible center was located near lat 16.4N lon 132.1E...about 1055 km East of Isabela, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 20% [Low]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to cloudy with possible occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to cloudy with possible occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 13 JULY POSITION: 19.1N 153.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO FLARING CONVECTIVE LOBES STRADDLING THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AS CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM NEARS. A 12/1551Z AMSR-E 89H
GHZ AND 12/1541Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONCENTRATED IN A THIN LINEAR BAND TO THE WEST WITH A LARGER CURVING
BAND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE 12/1551Z 37H GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION
AND VERY ASYMMETRIC IN NATURE. RECENT UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT A POINT SOURCE OF
DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER TS 08W BUT MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE REMAINS CONCENTRATED ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STORM ARE STILL
BEING NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN
PROPAGATING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE MOTION OF TS 08W AND HAS
INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A
NORTHWESTWARD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO DEVELOP. THE OUTFLOW INTO
THE LARGE TUTT CELL, THAT LIES FAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR THE
DATELINE, IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS TS 08W INCREASES ITS
LONGITUDINAL DISTANCE FROM THE CELL. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET WHICH LIES TO THE SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS AND FAVORS A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A NORTHWARD RECURVATURE SCENARIO, AS THE MAJORITY OF
CONSENSUS MEMBERS DO, IN THE LATER TAUS...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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