for Sunday, 17 July 2011 [6:24 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sunday July 17 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, sms, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (INENG).
MA-ON (INENG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
MAJOR TYPHOON MA-ON [INENG/08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 17 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #024/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MA-ON (INENG) has quickly moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), after entering the area 6 hours ago...weakens slightly.
Residents and visitors along the Southern coastal areas of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (INENG).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun July 17 2011
Location of Eye: 25.1º N Lat 134.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 10 km (5 nm) North of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 570 km (308 nm) SE of Naje, Japan
Distance 3: 640 km (345 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1330 km (718 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 26 kph (14 kts)
Towards: Southern Coast of Japan
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Morning [7-9AM JST]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1575 km (850 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sun July 17
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy with possible occasional squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON (INENG) is expected to maintain its NW track within the next 12 hours before turning more to the NNW to North through 48 hours. It will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tonight. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Exits the PAR...regains Category 4 status...about 570 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUL 18: 26.0N 133.5E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): At near-Super Typhoon strength, turns NNW to Northward...about 305 km ESE of Naje, Japan [2PM JUL 18: 27.9N 132.8E @ 230kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it starts to recurve towards the NNE, approaching the coast of Southern Japan (Eastern Kyushu-Southern Shikoku-Wakayama Peninsula)...about 275 km SE of Kagoshima, Japan [2AM JUL 19: 29.8N 132.6E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to weaken slowly, just barely a Category 4 Typhoon...tracking NE-ward closer to the coastal areas of Southern Shikoku & Wakayama Peninsula (Honshu)...about 225 km SSW of Kochi City, Japan [2PM JUL 19: 31.5N 133.2E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (INENG) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will intensify slowly within the next 12 to 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,575 kilometers (850 nautical miles) across.
METROPOLITAN TOKYO: About 135 km to the South of Tokyo [ETA: between 7:00-9:00 AM JST Thursday, July 21].
WAKAYAMA PENINSULA, HONSHU: About 175 km East of Kochi, Japan [ETA: between 2:00-4:00 PM JST Wednesday, July 20].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to Category 2...makes landfall over the Southern coast of Honshu (Japan) or off the Wakayama Peninsula [2PM JUL 20: 34.0N 136.5E @ 175kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to Category 1 as it begins Extratropical transition...moves East to ESE-ward...moving away from the SE Coast of Honshu [2PM JUL 21: 34.4N 141.1E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it becomes Extratropical...moving ESE across the open seas of the Western Pacific [2PM JUL 22: 33.0N 147.4E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MA-ON's (INENG) powerful circulation shows the end of an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) - with the development of a new eye/eyewall along its center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
NEW EYE - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
NEW EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the japanese islands of Okinawa, Ryukyu, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to med rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MA-ON's (INENG) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy with possible occasional squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly sunny to cloudy with possible occasional squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: VISAYAS & MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SUN 17 JULY POSITION: 24.4N 134.6E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 720 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MA-ON
TAKING A SHARP NORTHWARD STEP DURING THE FIRST THREE HOURS OF THE
PERIOD, THEN AN EQUALLY SHARP STAGGER-STEP TO THE WEST DURING THE
SECOND THREE HOURS. THE NET MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS
NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. TY 08W IS NEARING THE END OF AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). A 170414Z TRMM IMAGE CONFIRMS THE NEW EYE
WALL HAS WRAPPED FULLY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), BUT EYEWALL CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW. THE ERC HAS RESULTED
IN A FLAT INTENSITY TREND TODAY. IT IS ALSO MAKING INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT VIA DVORAK ANALYSIS LESS REPRESENTATIVE, AS THE WARMING
CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PROCESS HAVE GIVEN A WEAKER SIGNATURE. THE
CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A MODEL EXPECTED T
VALUE OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND A SIMILAR VALUE FROM KNES AT
170230Z. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES AT AND BELOW 10 KNOTS WILL ALLOW TY 09W TO RESUME
INTENSIFICATION AS THE ERC COMPLETES. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STEERING
TY 09W IS WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH
SOUNDINGS FROM NAZE (NORTHERN RYUKUS) AND KAGOSHIMA (KYUSHU) SHOW
BACKING WINDS, THEY BOTH SHOW 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS. SO THE RIDGE IS DECAYING, ALBEIT SLOWLY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN HANDLING THIS PROCESS VERY WELL. TY 08W IS A VERY LARGE STORM,
WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF MILES AWAY
FROM THE CENTER. A 170112Z ASCAT IMAGE REVEALS GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING NEARLY 250 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT IMPINGEMENT ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
CONTINUES. THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSHERIC TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
IMPINGEMENT IS FILLING, AND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETTER OUTFLOW
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS EXPECTED. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
REMAINS WELL-DEVELOPED. TY 08W WILL REMAIN UNDER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALL THE WAY THROUGH COASTAL JAPAN AND VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR WILL NOT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY. THE DE-INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS OF TY 08W WILL BE SLOW DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE PRIMARY
WEAKENING FORCES ON THE STORM WILL BE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN OF SHIKOKU AND THE WAKAYAMA PENINSULA AND BOUNDARY
LAYER CONVERGENCE. THUS TY 08W SHOULD REMAIN AT GREATER THAN
TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT PASSES THE KANTO PLAIN. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL THE STORM IS SEAWARD OF THE
KANTO, AND WILL NOT COMPLETE UNTIL TAU 120...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 06HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (INENG)...go visit our website @:
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