for Saturday, 30 July 2011 [5:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 019
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sat 30 July 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #023/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) now making landfall over Northern Vietnam...strong winds, heavy rains & high waves expected.
Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat July 30 2011
Location of Center: 19.4º N Lat 105.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 10 km East of Northern Vietnam's Coast
Distance 2: 180 km South of Hanoi, Vietnam
Distance 3: 295 km WNW of Dongfang, Hanoi Is.
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Sat July 30
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 1 day)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to continue moving West to WSW across Northern Vietnam through the night. It will dissipate over Laos tomorrow afternoon. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Dissipating over Northern Vietnam...just a weak depression...about 220 km SW of Hanoi, Vietnam [2AM JUL 31: 19.4N 104.7E @ 55kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Dissipated as a remnant low off Laos...about 335 km SW of Hanoi, Vietnam [2PM JUL 31: 19.2N 103.2E @ 30kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center. NOCK-TEN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 630 kilometers (340 nautical miles) across.
NORTHERN VIETNAM: Making landfall along the coast...about 180 km South of Hanoi, Vietnam [ETA: Ongoing].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation has started to deteriorate due to land interaction and increasing upper-level winds (Moderate Vertical Wind Shear). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - weakening while moving onshore off Northern Vietnam. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Northern Vietnam Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Western Hainan, Central Vietnam, and Western Guangdong . Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of NOCK-TEN (JUANING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 0 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Vietnam today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Central Vietnam, Hainan Island & Western portions of Guangdong Province. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 30 JULY POSITION: 19.6N 106.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARING TO THE WEST. A 300634Z
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO CLOUD COVER OBSCURING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
35 TO 45 KNOTS AND A NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATION OF 991MB. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH 30
KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
VIETNAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD
TRACK AS THE MAJOR STEERING INFLUENCE IS A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH...(more info)
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
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