for Friday, 29 July 2011 [7:08 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Now initiating 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Fri 29 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MUIFA (KABAYAN) slows down dramatically while gaining strength over the Philippine Sea...a track towards the North is likely in the coming days.
Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Fri July 29 2011
Location of Center: 12.4º N Lat 133.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 595 km (320 nm) NW of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 885 km (478 nm) ENE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 965 km (520 nm) East of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 4: 1015 km (548 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 1030 km (555 nm) ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 1065 km (575 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 1125 km (608 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 1360 km (735 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 800 mm (Extreme)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Fri July 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying at a normal rate as it turns NW to NNW-ward within 24 hours, before maintaining a northerly track across the Northern Philippine Sea in 36 to 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Turns NW-ward while intensifying over the Philippine Sea...about 965 km East of Sorsogon City, Bicol [2PM JUL 29: 13.0N 132.9E @ 95kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Continues to intensify, turning NNW...about 895 km East of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM JUL 30: 14.1N 132.5E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Tracking Northward over the Philippine Sea...nears Typhoon intensity...about 1105 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM JUL 30: 15.3N 132.4E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...maintains its Northward track with a slight bend to the right...about 1065 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM JUL 31: 16.7N 132.5E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify while move NNE across the North Philippine Sea [2AM AUG 01: 19.0N 133.0E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its intensification trend...starts turning left of its track (NNW) [2AM AUG 02: 21.1N 133.6E @ 140kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: About to leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...maintains its NNW movemement...threatens Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands [2AM AUG 03: 23.7N 133.2E @ 150kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, MINDANAO, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation has slightly improved in its spiral curvatute, despite upper-level winds aloft. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - receding away from the Pacific Islands of Yap-Ulithi-Palau. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 400 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 800 mm (extreme) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (clihttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ETRAP/2011/NWPacific/MUIFA/2011MUIFA.pmqpf.07281800.24.GIFck to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, MINDANAO, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 29 JULY POSITION: 12.3N 133.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION HAS
DEEPENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CIRRUS BLOWOFF
INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND PARTIALLY OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 28/1750Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGE INDICATES THIS CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LLCC. INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND THE ABOVEMENTIONED
SATELLITE IMAGES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST
SOUTH OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IN A REGION OF MODERATE (25-30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH VERY WEAK SUBSIDENCE APPARENT ON THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. TS 11W IS TRACKING MORE SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A WESTWARD BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) IS SLOWLY RECEDING
WESTWARD AND WILL CAUSE TS 11W TO SLOWLY TURN POLEWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD,
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNDER WEAKER VWS AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FROM TAU 24 TO 72 TS 11W WILL BE UNDER A WEAK
STEERING PATTERN AND TRACK SLOWLY UNTIL ANOTHER STR BEGINS BUILDING
IN FROM THE EAST. AFTER TAU 72 THIS STR WILL STEER TS 11W MORE
WESTWARD TOWARD JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
POOR AGREEMENT AS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE TIMING ON
EACH OF THE STEERING MECHANISMS. WBAR AND EGRR CONTINUE TO FAVOR A
MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEFORE TURNING 11W TO THE NORTH WHEREAS GFS
FAVORS AN IMMEDIATE TRACK TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 120 GUIDANCE IS
SPREAD OVER 500 NM AS GREAT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING STR TO THE EAST. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
NEAR CONSENSUS IN EARLY TAUS, SLIGHTLY EAST AFTER TAU 48, AND NEAR
CONSENSUS IN LATER TAUS...(more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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