for Friday, 15 July 2011 [6:12 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 155 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Fri 15 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #014
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The very large MA-ON (08W) has strengthened into a major Typhoon...still moving mainly westward. Meanwhile, LPA 92W remains off the Philippine Sea...now drifting ENE slowly towards MA-ON.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri July 15 2011
Location of Eye: 20.4º N Lat 143.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 325 km (175 nm) NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 525 km (283 nm) SSE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 845 km (457 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 2195 km (1185 nm) East of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Ryukyu-Kyushu Area
6-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 120 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1110 km (600 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Fri July 15
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to turn slighty WNW-ward and continue to intensify for the next 2 days. It shall be near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) tomorrow afternoon (July 16). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Intensifying while passing far to the south of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima)...about 455 km South of the historical island [2PM JUL 15: 20.7N 141.4E @ 205kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Attains Category 4 status...about 470 km SW of Iwo To [2AM JUL 16: 21.1N 139.1E @ 220kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Almost a Super Typhoon as it nears the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 1,095 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUL 16: 21.5N 137.1E @ 230kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintain its near-Super Typhoon strength...prepares to enter the PAR...about 895 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUL 17: 22.2N 135.3E @ 230kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify through the next 48 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). MA-ON is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,110 kilometers (600 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slightly as it turns sharply towards the NW to NNW...prepares to leave the PAR [2AM JUL 18: 24.5N 132.8E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to weaken...tracking NNW towards Kyushu, Japan [2AM JUL 19: 27.5N 132.0E @ 215kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3 as it bears down the southern coast of Kyushu, Japan...prepares to make landfall [2AM JUL 20: 31.1N 131.6E @ 205kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation has shown a small 19-km eye w/ strong eyewall convection especially along the southern portion. The southern inner & outer rainbands are no longer affecting the Northernmost Marianas. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
SMALL EYE - remains over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water...no longer affecting notable islands. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water...no longer affecting notable islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 120 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1006 MB) has started to have a Direct Cyclone Interaction (DCI) (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) w/ the powerful Typhoon MA-ON located to its NE...now drifting ENE slowly. Its possible center was located near lat 14.4N lon 132.5E...about 875 km ENE of Bicol Region, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 80% [High]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 15 JULY POSITION: 20.3N 143.7E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL 10 NM EYE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 141656Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS AN
EYE WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH IS PREVENTING OUTFLOW ON THIS
SIDE. HOWEVER, TY 08W MAINTAINS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST
IS IMPROVING. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED EAST
OF TOKYO, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AND INTENSIFY WITH A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AFTER TAU 48,
TY 08W SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AS IT MODIFIES AND REORIENTS
THE STEERING RIDGE. ALSO, A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CHINA, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODIFYING THE
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD OVER WATER WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. HOWEVER, THE
INTENSITIES SHOULD NOT DROP OFF TOO SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT APPROACHES
JAPAN BECAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONLY
SLIGHTLY. MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD INCREASES AFTER TAU 48 WITH THE
TIMING OF THE POLEWARD TURN. BOTH ECMWF AND UKMO ARE INDICATING AN
ENHANCED DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A DISTURBANCE IN THE
EAST PHILIPPINE SEA AND THEREFORE TRACK TY 08W FARTHER WESTWARD
BEFORE TURNING IT SHARPLY NORTHWARD. NOGAPS AND GFS ARE THE EASTERN
OUTLIERS AND ARE NOT INDICATING AS STRONG OF A DCI SCENARIO. THIS
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DCI
SCENARIO AND PERSISTENCE...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 6-12HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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