for Saturday, 16 July 2011 [7:45 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 15 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TOKAGE (HANNA).
TOKAGE (HANNA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOKAGE [HANNA/09W/1107]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sat 16 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
TOKAGE (HANNA) downgraded to a Tropical Depression as it begins to dissipate north of Yap Island. This system has started to be absorbed into the southern rainband circulation of the much powerful Typhoon MA-ON approaching from the East. TOKAGE is now well outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Boats and ships along the Philippine Sea should closely monitor the progress of TOKAGE (HANNA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sat July 16 2011
Location of Center: 14.3º N Lat 136.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 150 km (80 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1295 km (700 nm) ENE of Bicol Region
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: MA-ON's Southern Circulation
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0.0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Sat July 16
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 1 day)*
TOKAGE (HANNA) is expected to turn NE-ward and will be absorbed completely into the strong southern rainband circulation of Typhoon MA-ON within 24 hours. This storm is currently having a Direct Cyclone Interaction (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with the powerful MA-ON which is approaching from the East. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SAT): Barely a TD as it is being absorbed into MA-ON's circulation...about 1740 km East of Northern Luzon, PH [2PM JUL 16: 17.3N 138.9E @ 45kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: No longer a Tropical Cyclone...becomes a part of MA-ON's circulation as it moves very fast Northward ...about 1755 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM JUL 17: 21.2N 138.9E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. TOKAGE (HANNA) is a Tropical Depression on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will dissipate within the next 24 hours. TOKAGE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 16 JULY POSITION: 14.5N 136.2E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTH OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE EAST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 425 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TYPHOON (TY) 08W AND IS UNDERGOING DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION (FUJIWARA) AS EVIDENCED BY THE RAPID ACCELERATION
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF TY 08W. TD 09W IS ALSO
UNDER HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ANTICYLONIC OUTFLOW OF TY 08W. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT INDICATING 25-30 KNOT WINDS. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE WELL-
DEFINED, EXPOSED LLCC IN IR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF TY 08W AND IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 24....(more)
>> TOKAGE, meaning: Laceta; Lizard. Name contributed by: Japan.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD TOKAGE (HANNA)...go visit our website @:
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