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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday July 12 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TD 08W (UNNAMED).
08W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Tue 12 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 08W (UNNAMED), a newly-formed Tropical Cyclone over the far Western Pacific Ocean has been moving slowly westward and still consolidating. This system may threaten the southwestern areas of Japan particularly Okinawa-Ryukyus this weekend & early next week.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 08W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Tue July 12 2011
Location of Center: 18.7º N Lat 154.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 950 km (513 nm) East of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 1530 km (825 nm) SE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 2065 km (1115 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 3415 km (1845 nm) ESE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Tue July 12
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
08W (UNNAMED) is expected to move WNW across the open seas of the Western Pacific and steadily intensify for the next 2 days. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for 08W (UNNAMED).
THIS EVENING (TUE): Upgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 790 km ENE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [8PM JUL 12: 19.2N 153.1E @ 65kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (WED): Continues to intensify while over the Western Pacific Ocean...about 570 km ENE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [8AM JUL 13: 19.9N 150.9E @ 85kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (WED): Intensifying into a strong TS...about 395 km NE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [8PM JUL 13: 20.4N 148.9E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: At near-Typhoon intensity...passing far to the north of the Marianas...about 285 km NNE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [8AM JUL 14: 21.1N 146.5E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 08W (UNNAMED) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify throughout the 5-day forecast.
FRIDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...passing south of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima)...turns Westward [8AM JUL 15: 22.2N 140.9E @ 130kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its intensification process, nearing Category 2 status...bends more Westward as it approaches the northeast border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [8AM JUL 16: 22.2N 136.3E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Well inside the PAR, upgraded to Category 2 Typhoon as it continues moving Westerly [8AM JUL 17: 22.0N 133.4E @ 165kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Cloudy with possible occasional showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
08W's (UNNAMED) circulation remain on its developing stage, with most of its convective rainbands south of the low-level center. Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - still over water (off the far Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of 08W (UNNAMED). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1010 MB) quasi-stationary east of Northern Luzon or off the Philippine Sea. Its possible center was located near lat 16.4N lon 132.4E...about 1075 km East of Isabela, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system remains @ 20% [Low]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Cloudy with possible occasional showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Cloudy with possible occasional showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 12 JULY POSITION: 18.7N 155.5E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A COALESCING, BUT STILL ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TWO MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
CURVING TOWARDS THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 22N 150E. A 112202Z SSMIS 91H GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS THE TWO SPIRALING RAINBANDS WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
SECTION OF THE LLCC. A 112340Z ASCAT PASS, WHICH CAPTURED THE ENTIRE
LLCC, SHOWS 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH 30 KNOT WINDS
DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE FROM THE CENTER OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TD 08W
IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALLER TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD
08W TO BE FILLING, WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
TO STRENGTHEN INTO A LARGER TUTT CELL FARTHER TO THE EAST LOCATED
NEAR 26N 176W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE
REFERENCED ASCAT PASS, SSMIS IMAGE, AND ANIMATED MSI WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS...(more info)
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 08W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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