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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
MAJOR TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 17 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #022/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MA-ON (08W) moving northwestward with no change in strength...will enter the northeasternmost corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) today.
Residents and visitors along the southern coast of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun July 17 2011
Location of Eye: 23.2º N Lat 135.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km (32 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 835 km (450 nm) SE of Naje, Japan
Distance 3: 870 km (470 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1435 km (775 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Early AM [4-5AM JST]
06hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 130 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1665 km (900 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Sun July 17
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to maintain its NW track within the next 12 hours before turning more to the NNW through 48 hours. It shall enter the northeasternmost corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon with a little increase in intensity. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SUN): Regains Category 4 status...enters the northeasternmost corner of the PAR...about 760 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM JUL 17: 24.1N 134.9E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Continues to intensify as it turns NNW, exiting the PAR...about 615 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM JUL 18: 25.7N 133.9E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Maintains its Category 4 status, turns poleward (north)...about 340 km ESE of Naje, Japan [2PM JUL 18: 27.6N 133.1E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens slowly as it executes recurvature towards the NE...about 315 km SE of Kagoshima City, Japan [2AM JUL 19: 29.6N 132.9E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to slowly intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,665 kilometers (900 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3...off the coast of Shikoku and Honshu (Japan)...prepares to make landfall [2AM JUL 20: 33.1N 134.9E @ 195kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 2 as it begins Extratropical transition...moves Eastward after making landfall along Southern Honshu, just south of Kyoto City...passing close to the south of Tokyo [2AM JUL 21: 34.6N 139.2E @ 160kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 1 as it moves East to ESE away from Japan and into the open seas of the Western Pacific...nears Extratropical status [2AM JUL 22: 33.7N 145.4E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation is currently undergoing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) as it continues to display a 28-km Eye with an intense eyewall convection surrounding the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
EYE (28-KM) - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the japanese islands of Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
06HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 80 mm (low to med rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (medium-high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 17 JULY POSITION: 22.7N 136.3E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A 15 NM EYE WITH AN EYEWALL SURROUNDING THE CENTER EXCEPT OVER THE
WEST QUADRANT. A 161704Z AMSR-E IMAGE SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS OCCURRING WITH A SMALL INNER EYEWALL
SURROUNDED BY A NEAR COMPLETE OUTER EYEWALL. MICROWAVE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A LARGE 300-360 NM RADIUS SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS 200 NM. OVERALL, OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS THE TUTT HAS WEAKENED. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED
NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MINOR WOBBLE INDICATED IN ANIMATED IMAGERY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT, HAVE WARMED
YET THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED. THE CLOUD TOP WARMING IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM TREND AND TY 08W IS STILL EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY TO ABOUT 125 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AFTER THE ERC
IS COMPLETE AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK BASED ON A TIGHT GROUPING OF DYNAMIC
MODELS AND A FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE 15/12Z
AND 16/12Z 500 MB ANALYSES INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS EAST ASIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING RIDGE AND
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS PUSHING INTO SOUTH KOREA AND
WESTERN JAPAN. THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER AT THE EXTENDED TAUS...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 06HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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