<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest 6-hrly SMS Storm Alerts on HANNA!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 15 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS TOKAGE (HANNA).
TOKAGE (HANNA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TOKAGE [HANNA/09W/1107]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 15 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JMA TC Warning
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TOKAGE (HANNA) has moved eastward away from the Philippines as it interacts with the large & powerful Typhoon MA-ON. This system is forecast to merge into the southern circulation of MA-ON tomorrow or Sunday.
Boats and ships along the Philippine Sea should closely monitor the progress of TOKAGE (HANNA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri July 15 2011
Location of Center: 14.0º N Lat 133.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 1050 km (567 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1105 km (597 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 3: 1155 km (623 nm) ENE of Naga City
Distance 4: 1390 km (750 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: East @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft (2.4 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0.0 m]
JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 PM JST Fri July 15
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
TOKAGE (HANNA) is expected to turn Eastward to ENE-ward and will maintain its strength within the next 24 hours. This storm is currently having a Direct Cyclone Interaction (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with the powerful MA-ON located to its NE, and is likely to be absorbed into MA-ON's southern rainbands within 24-48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Remains over the Philippine Sea...moving East or ENE-ward...about 1080 km East of Virac, Catanduanes, PH [5PM JUL 16: 13.8N 134.2E @ 65kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a weak Tropical Depression (TD) as it starts to merge into the circulation of Typhoon MA-ON located to the NE of TOKAGE...about 505 km SW of Iwo To [5PM JUL 16: 13.5N 134.5E @ 45kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. TOKAGE (HANNA) is a minimal Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will maintain its strength through the next 24 hours before dissipating. TOKAGE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TOKAGE's (HANNA) weak circulation continues rotate off the Philippine Sea, with most of its raincloud convection to the SW of the low-level circulation center (LLCC). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
WEAK INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) can be expected along these bands.
DISPLACED OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - N/A
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 15 JULY POSITION: 14.1N 133.2E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W (TOKAGE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION
DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 150722Z SSMI
MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS THE EXPOSED LLCC POSITION AND THE DISPLACED
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A
150021Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND WEAKER 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. TD 09W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH 08W AND IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP AND BEGIN
TRACKING INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO TY 08W NEAR TAU 36. TD TOKAGE IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY, AS
OUTFLOW FROM TY 08W IS ALREADY INHIBITING CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTER. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS MERGER SCENARIO....(more)
>> TOKAGE, meaning: Laceta; Lizard. Name contributed by: Japan.
RECENT JMA TRACKING CHART:
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TOKAGE (HANNA)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved