for Friday, 15 July 2011 [2:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 15 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS TOKAGE (92W).
TOKAGE MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 35 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TOKAGE [92W]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 15 July 2011
Source: JMA TC Warning
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The Tropical Disturbance (92W) off the Philippine Sea has been upgraded by Japan Meteorological Agency as Tropical Storm TOKAGE (92W)...currently "exposed" with most of its raincloud convection displaced to the southwest. "Exposed" is a common term used in tropical cyclone analysis as a low-level center without or with less convective rainclouds, & being affected by strong upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear). TOKAGE is a japanese word for a kind of lizard (Lacerta). This system is not a threat to the Philippines and will not affect otherwise.
Boats and ships along the Philippine Sea should closely monitor the progress of TOKAGE (92W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri July 15 2011
Location of Center: 14.1º N Lat 132.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 940 km (507 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 1000 km (540 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 3: 1050 km (567 nm) ENE of Naga City
Distance 4: 1285 km (695 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: ESE Slowly
Towards: Philippine Sea
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 370 km (200 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0.0 m]
JMA TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM JST Fri July 15
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 1 day)*
TOKAGE (92W) is expected to turn ENE to NE-ward and will maintain its strength within the next 24 hours. This storm is currently having a Direct Cyclone Interaction (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with the powerful MA-ON located to its NE, and is likely to be absorbed into MA-ON's southern rainbands in the coming days. Below is the summary of the 1-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Remains over the Philippine Sea...almost stationary after drifting slowly NE-ward...about 1010 km ENE of Virac, Catanduanes, PH [8AM JUL 16: 14.5N 133.5E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. TOKAGE (92W) is a minimal Tropical Storm on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will maintain its strength through the next 24 hours. TOKAGE is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TOKAGE's (92W) weak circulation continues to linger off the Philippine Sea, with most of its raincloud convection to the SW of the low-level circulation center (LLCC). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
WEAK INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 kph) can be expected along these bands.
DISPLACED OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - N/A
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 10 AM (02 GMT) FRI 15 JULY POSITION: 14.1N 132.9E.
>> TOKAGE, meaning: Laceta; Lizard. Name contributed by: Japan.
RECENT JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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