for Wednesday, 13 July 2011 [8:00 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday July 12 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TS MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Wed 13 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #008
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MA-ON (08W) continues to intensify as it accelerates Westward across the Western Pacific Ocean.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Korea & Taiwan should closely monitor the progress of 08W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed July 13 2011
Location of Center: 19.8º N Lat 150.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 560 km (303 nm) ENE of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 1125 km (608 nm) SE of Iwo To
Distance 3: 1650 km (890 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 4: 3005 km (1623 nm) ESE of Batanes, PH
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 230 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Wed July 13
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to remain as a "straight-runner" (moving West to WNW-ward) and steadily intensify for the next 2 days. It shall become a Typhoon by early tomorrow morning (Thursday). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Attains typhoon status while over the Western Pacific...about 375 km ENE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2AM JUL 14: 20.0N 148.9E @ 120kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Passing well to the north of the Marianas...about 215 km NNE of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2PM JUL 14: 20.4N 146.6E @ 140kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to Category 2...about 265 km NW of Agrihan Island, CNMI [2AM JUL 15: 20.7N 144.2E @ 160kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Still intensifying, passing well to the south of Iwo To...about 425 km to the South [2PM JUL 15: 21.0N 141.8E @ 165kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue to intensify throughout the 5-day forecast. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles) from the center. MA-ON is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to Category 3 while passing well to the SW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [2PM JUL 16: 21.8N 138.1E @ 185kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Veers more to the NW as it enters the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...still strengthening [2PM JUL 17: 23.2N 135.2E @ 195kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Already outside of the PAR, turns more NNW...moving closer to the Southern Islands of Japan [2PM JUL 18: 26.2N 133.1E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MA-ON's (08W) radial circulation continues to improve w/ the development of an eye-like feature within the central dense overcast (CDO). Below are the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Western Pacific)...possible "Eye" forming underneath. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ strong winds (100-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water...not affecting any land areas. However, it will start to affect Agrihan-Pagan-Alamagan of the Northern Marianas beginning tonight through tomorrow. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 92W (LPA/1008 MB) disorganized while over the Philippine Sea...remains almost stationary. Its possible center was located near lat 15.0N lon 133.5E...about 1290 km East of Luzon, PH...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 30 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is @ 40% [Medium]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy with occasional rains, squalls, showers or thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LUZON Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 13 JULY POSITION: 19.7N 151.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W, MA-ON, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) AND FILLED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH
WAS RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE 24 HOURS AGO. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION
REVEALS THAT A WELL-ESTABLISHED TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) EXTENDING ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT THE INHIBITION HAS EASED DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS AS THE STORM BEGINS TO SHAPE ITS OWN ENVIRONMENT. WATER VAPOR
ANIMATION ALSO EXPOSES A DEEP TROUGH IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THUS THE ONLY QUADRANT WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW IS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND OVER THAT QUADRANT,
CONVECTION SPREADING WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS
DISPERSING ENERGY FROM THE CORE. THE LATEST TWO MICROWAVE IMAGE
SERIES, A 130245Z AMSRE AND A 130613Z SSMI, BOTH CONFIRM A LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT THEY DO SHOW A WELL-
DEVELOPED MICROWAVE EYE. IN THE AGGREGATE, TS 08W IS SHOWING STEADY
INTENSIFICATION, ALBEIT AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THE
STEERING MECHANISM IS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OFF-SHORE OF HONSHU
(THE SAME FORCE BEHIND THE BRUTAL HEAT WAVE IN MAINLAND JAPAN). THE
ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH THE
NEXT 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL DRIVE TS 08W ON A STEADY COURSE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE IT INTENSIFIES AT A RATE OF APPROXIMATELY 15-20
KNOTS PER DAY. AFTER TAU 72, THE ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST, OPENING A WEAKNESS OVER THE NORTHERN
RYUKUS. THERE IS PRONOUNCED DISPARITY IN MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
72, WITH NOGAPS AND GFS CURVING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE KANTO AND
DIRECTLY INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EGRR IS THE EQUATORWARD
OUTLIER, KEEPING THE STORM AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER. JGSM AND ECMWF
TRACK THE SYSTEM ALONG THE BOTTOM SIDE OF THE TILTING RIDGE, WHICH
IS THE SOLUTION THAT SEEMS THE MOST COHERENT AT THIS POINT. THE JTWC
FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN STAYS SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS, BETWEEN CONSENSUS AND ECMWF, IN THE EXTENDED RANGES. OF
GREATER CERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE FORECAST THAN THE TRACK IS THE
INTENSITY. IT IS PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT A POLEWARD TRACK WOULD NOT BE
THE COMMON RECURVATURE SCENARIO, WITH THE STORM ACCELERATING TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LEVEL
MODIFICATION AS IT TRACKS INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN, WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET EXTENDING OVER NORTH
KOREA AND HOKKAIDO, WILL ALLOW THE STORM TO REMAIN IN TROPICAL AIR
AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, VIRTUALLY UNMODIFIED RIGHT UP TO
LANDFALL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WARM WATER
EXISTS ALL THE WAY TO THE TSUSHIMA STRAIT, SO THERE IS NO REASON TO
EXPECT THE STORM TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE LONG RANGE
INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF STIPS GUIDANCE, CLOSER
TO ECMWF, JGSM, AND GFDN...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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