for Friday, 29 July 2011 [6:12 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight & 3:00 AM) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Fri 29 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #019/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) has started to move onshore across Hainan Island...passing very close to Qionghai. Near-Typhoon Conditions occuring across the Island.
Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam & Southern China particularly Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri July 29 2011
Location of Center: 19.0º N Lat 110.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 30 km SE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 2: 130 km SSE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 130 km ESE of Danzhou, Hainan
Distance 4: 155 km ENE of Sanya, Hainan
Distance 5: 210 km East of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 6: 255 km South of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 7: 510 km SW of Hong Kong
Distance 8: 560 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Hainan-Gulf of Tonkin Area
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 775 km (420 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Fri July 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to weaken upon crossing the island of Hainan throughout the evening until tomorrow morning. It will be over the Gulf of Tonkin before noon tomorrow and make its last landfall over North-Central Vietnam Sunday morning. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Over Central Hainan...weaken slightly as it interacts with the island's terrain...about 40 km SE of Danzhou, Hainan [2AM JUL 30: 19.2N 109.8E @ 75kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Off the West Coast of Hainan, emerging over the Gulf of Tonkin...about 65 km WNW of Dongfang, Hainan [2PM JUL 30: 19.3N 108.1E @ 85kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING): Just off the coast of North-Central Vietnam...about 235 km SSE of Hanoi, Vietnam [2AM JUL 31: 19.0N 106.5E @ 95kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it moves inland...in the vicinity of the Laos-Vietnam Border...about 260 km SSW of Hanoi, Vietnam [2PM JUL 31: 18.8N 105.0E @ 55kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. NOCK-TEN is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 775 kilometers (420 nautical miles) across.
HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA: Making landfall along the East Coast, very near Qionghai & exit very near Dongfang [ETA: Ongoing until 9:00 AM Saturday, July 30].
CENTRAL VIETNAM: Making landfall along the coast...about 235 km South of Hanoi, Vietnam [ETA: between 8:00-10:00 AM PhT Sunday, July 31].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated over Laos...just an area of Low Pressure (Tropical Disturbance) [2PM AUG 01: 18.8N 103.8E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation has changed - with its convective rainclouds becoming more concentrated along the southern & western quadrants. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - affecting and making landfall over Eastern Hainan Island, very near Qionghai. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ near-typhoon force winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the whole of Hainan Island & parts of Gulf of Tonkin Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the coastal areas of Guangdong Province & Northern Vietnam & the rest of Gulf of Tonkin . Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (high) near the center of NOCK-TEN (JUANING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 0 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Hainan Island today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Central & Northern Vietnam & Guangdong Province. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 29 JULY POSITION: 18.8N 111.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS TOTALLY OBSCURED
BY A COLD DENSE OVERCAST BUT HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL DEPTH AND
STRUCTURE AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF HAINAN. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM CURRENT STORM MOTION WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM
IS TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CHINA. IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DRAGS ACROSS HAINAN
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY TO 50 KNOTS AS IT
EMERGES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. IT WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL AFTER
TAU 36 OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM THEN DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 72. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AS THE
RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNLIKELY POLEWARD PULL...(more info)
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
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