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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 25 2011):
Now initiating the 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight & 3:00 AM) on 10W (JUANING).
10W (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W [JUANING]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Mon 25 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 10W (JUANING) moving WNW slowly closer to the East Coast of Bicol Region...its developing, western & southern outer rainbands continues to spread across Samar and Bicol Provinces.
Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region, Southern and Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 10W (UNNAMED).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Mon July 25 2011
Location of Center: 13.1º N Lat 127.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 290 km (155 nm) ENE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 2: 330 km (178 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 345 km (185 nm) East of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 380 km (205 nm) East of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 435 km (235 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Isabela-Cagayan Area
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 12:00 PM PhT Mon July 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 10W's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with possible occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS & NORTHERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
10W (JUANING) is expected move WNW to NW'ly within the next 2 days, becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) tomorrow morning. It shall be off coast of Isabela-Cagayan Area on Wednesday morning with forecast wind speeds of almost 95 km/hr. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (MON): Turns NW-ward while approaching the east coast of Catanduanes Island...about 250 km East of Virac, Catanduanes [8PM JUL 25: 13.5N 126.5E @ 55kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (TUE): Upgraded to TS, passing well to the NE of Catanduanes Island...about 150 km NE of Pandan, Catanduanes [8AM JUL 26: 14.7N 125.3E @ 75kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (TUE): Intensifying while still over the Philippine Sea, tracking NW-ward...about 245 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [8PM JUL 26: 16.1N 124.4E @ 85kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Strengthens to a Severe Tropical Storm as it nears the east coast of Northern Isabela & Eastern Cagayan...about 160 km East of Tuguegarao City [8AM JUL 27: 17.4N 123.2E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 10W (JUANING) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some additional strengthening will be expected later today.
NORTHEASTERN CATANDUANES: About 150 km NE of Pandan. Catanduanes [ETA: between 6:00 to 8:00 AM PhT Tomorrow].
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF CAGAYAN: Making landfall along Escaparda Point or just to the NE of Mount Gonzaga...about 55 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [ETA: between 1:00-2:00 PM PhT Wednesday].
THURSDAY MORNING: At near-Typhoon strength...moving away from the Balintang Channel and into the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) [8AM JUL 28: 19.3N 120.9E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Moving WNW across the South China Sea...approaching the coast of Southern China...weakens due to unfavorable conditions [8AM JUL 29: 21.2N 117.7E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Dissipating into an area of Low Pressure after making landfall over Southern China, just to the NE of Hong Kong [8AM JUL 30: 23.0N 114.2E @ 30kph].
**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that 10W will continue moving WNW-ward and cross Central & Northern Luzon on Wednesday...making landfall near Casiguran, Aurora - if the strong High Pressure Steering Ridge NE of 10W extends westward.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
10W's (JUANING) circulation continues to consolidate with most of its rain-bearing convective outer bands along the western & southern portions of the Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
WESTERN & SOUTHERN RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Bicol Region & Samar Provinces. Near-Tropical Depression Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (15-40 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA/1005 MB) spotted off Micronesia, continues to consolidate and is likely to develop into another Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Its possible center was located near lat 6.2N lon 149.2E...about 935 km SSE of Guam, CNMI...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now at 80% [High]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
10W's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with possible occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS & NORTHERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with possible occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, VISAYAS & NORTHERN MINDANAO. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 25 JULY POSITION: 12.7N 127.6E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION INTENSIFYING AND
CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALED SIGNIFICANT COOLING IN THE CLOUD
TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS THE CONVECTION DEEPENED. A
242112Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS PASSES SHOWS
GREATER COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION, BUT THE 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL BANDING IS SLOW TO ORGANIZE. THE 241200Z PGTW
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE LLCC EXISTS IN A
MODERATELY DIFFLUENT REGION POLEWARD OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10-15 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND THE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEAL SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR NORTH OF 15 DEGREES LATITUDE. THE NORTHEASTERLIES ARE SPINNING
OUT OF THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE PLANTED OVER EASTERN CHINA, WHICH
HAS SURGED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST WEEK. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS
WELL ESTABLISHED. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEED 30 DEGREES.
SURFACE REPORTS ALONG THE COAST OF SAMAR AND SOUTHERN LUZON ARE
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING LIGHT OFF-SHORE FLOW AND PRESSURES
CORRESPONDING WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER OPEN WATERS. A 241317Z
ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 20
KNOTS IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUADRANT. TD 10W IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT, MOVING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXISTS AS A COL BETWEEN THE
ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE OCEANIC ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS
CENTERED NEAR 35N 160E. DUE TO THE SLOW ORGANIZATION THUS FAR, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON MSI AND
SURFACE REPORTS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
IS BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND
KNES, AS WELL AS THE EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE AND EXTRAPOLATIONS FROM
PRESSURE REPORTS BY COASTAL STATIONS ALONG SAMAR AND
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 10W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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