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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight & 3:00 AM) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
5:00 PM PhT (03:00 GMT) Thu 28 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) maintaining its fast movement towards Hainan Island...turns more to the west.
Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu July 28 2011
Location of Center: 18.2º N Lat 114.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 445 km (240 nm) South of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 450 km (243 nm) SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 405 km (220 nm) ESE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 460 km (248 nm) SE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 5: 675 km (365 nm) West of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Hainan Island
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 210 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 10-20 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Thu July 28
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to continue moving WNW and re-intensify through the next 1-2 days while moving along the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea). It shall again become a typhoon tomorrow afternoon before making landfall over Hainan Island, China. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Intensifying while moving across the West Philippine Sea, approaching the east coast of Hainan Island...about 255 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan [2AM JUL 29: 18.5N 112.8E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Near typhoon strength as it barrels down the coast of Hainan Island...about 55 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan [2PM JUL 29: 19.1N 111.0E @ 110kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING (FRI): Over Hainan Island...about 40 km ESE of Danzhou, Hainan [2AM JUL 30: 19.3N 109.9E @ 95kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Reintensifies as it emerges over the Gulf of Tonkin...just off the west coast of Hainan Island...about 45 km NW of Dongfang, Hainan Island [2PM JUL 30: 19.4N 108.4E @ 100kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. NOCK-TEN is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA: Making landfall along the Eastern Coast thru Qionghai & exit just north of Dongfang [ETA: between 4:00 PM HKT Friday, July 29 to 12:00 PM Saturday, July 30].
NORTHERN VIETNAM: Making landfall along the coast...about 165 km South of Hanoi, Vietnam [ETA: between 8:00-9:00 AM PhT Sunday, July 31].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating over Northern Vietnam as the system makes landfall [2PM JUL 31: 19.5N 105.3E @ 85kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded into a TD as it dissipates over Laos [2PM AUG 01: 19.3N 103.0E @ 55kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation has maintained its organization as it moves across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Western Luzon & the coastal areas of Hainan Island & Guangdong Province. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) near the center of NOCK-TEN (JUANING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 28 JULY POSITION: 18.0N 114.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS REMAINED INTACT EVEN AS
THE FEEDER BANDS SLOWLY REORGANIZE AFTER BEING RECENTLY FRAGMENTED
OVER THE PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE. THE INITIIAL INTENSITY
IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS
IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CYCLONE
IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW- TO MODERATE SUBTROPOICAL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER EASTERN CHINA. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK
AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY, DRAG ACROSS HAINAN, CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN
AND MAKE LANDFALL IN VIETNAM, SOUTH OF HANOI. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS...(more info)
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
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