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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NOCK-TEN [JUANING/10W/1108]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 30 July 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #021/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NOCK-TEN (JUANING) moving west-southwestward across the Gulf of Tonkin...expected to move onshore along Northern Vietnam tonight.
Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of NOCK-TEN (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat July 30 2011
Location of Center: 19.2º N Lat 107.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 145 km EAST of Northern Vietnam's Coast
Distance 2: 160 km WEST of Dongfang, Hainan
Distance 3: 250 km SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: WSW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Northern Vietnam
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 630 km (340 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM HKT Sat July 30
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is expected to continue moving WEST to WSW across the Gulf of Tonkin, until its final landfall along Northern Vietnam later this evening. It will dissipate over Laos tomorrow after crossing the north-central part of Vietnam. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (SAT): Weakens slightly as it starts to move onshore into Northern Vietnam...about 210 km SOUTH of Hanoi, Vietnam [8PM JUL 30: 19.1N 106.0E @ 75kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (SUN): Moving WSW across the Vietnam-Laos Border, dissipating over land, just a Tropical Depression (TD)...about 285 km SSW of Hanoi, Vietnam [8AM JUL 31: 18.7N 104.6E @ 45kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated as an area of low pressure, moving westward across Laos ...about 445 km SW of Hanoi, Vietnam [8PM JUL 31: 18.7N 102.3E @ 20kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. NOCK-TEN (JUANING) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 85 kilometers (45 nautical miles) from the center. NOCK-TEN is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 630 kilometers (340 nautical miles) across.
NORTHERN VIETNAM: Making landfall along the coast...about 225 km SOUTH of Hanoi, Vietnam [ETA: between 11:00 PM-12:00 AM HKT Tonight].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NOCK-TEN's (JUANING) circulation has started to deteriorate due to land interaction and increasing upper-level winds (Moderate Vertical Wind Shear). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - weakening while over the Gulf of Tonkin. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the east coast of Northern Vietnam Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Western Hainan, Northern & Central Vietnam, and Western Guangdong . Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (high) near the center of NOCK-TEN (JUANING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 0 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Vietnam today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Central Vietnam, Hainan Island & Western portions of Guangdong Province. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 30 JULY POSITION: 19.3N 108.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS NOCK-TEN HAS MAINTAINED VIGOROUS
CONVECTION DESPITE THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS, IS STEMMING
FROM THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE SHEAR IS
DISPLACING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. SEVERAL SURFACE REPORTS SURROUNDING THE STORM PROVIDES GOOD
CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TS 10W
HAS CROSSED HAINAN AND IS NOW TRACKING THROUGH 31 DEGREE SEA WATERS
IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE INTENSIFYING EFFECTS OF WARM WATER ARE
BEING OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...(more info)
>> NOCK-TEN, meaning: Bird. Name contributed by: Laos.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NOCK-TEN (JUANING)...go visit our website @:
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