for Friday, 29 July 2011 [6:25 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 90 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 29 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #016/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MUIFA (KABAYAN) has started moving northward across the Philippine Sea with no change in strength.
Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines & the Southern Islands of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri July 29 2011
Location of Center: 13.9º N Lat 134.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 660 km NW of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 965 km ENE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 1030 km ENE of Catarman, Northern Samar
Distance 4: 1060 km East of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 1085 km ENE of Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 1115 km ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 1165 km East of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 1390 km ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 550 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 21 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Fri July 29
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying over the Northern Philippine Sea at a normal rate and will move on an "S-Shaped" Northward track within the next 24 to 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Continues to move on a slow NNW to Northward while intensifying over the Philippine Sea...about 1280 km East of Infanta, Quezon [2AM JUL 30: 14.6N 133.6E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Nearing Typhoon strength as it continued moving Northward slowly...about 1200 km Casiguran, Aurora [2PM JUL 30: 15.8N 133.3E @ 110kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon...about 1160 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM JUL 31: 17.1N 133.3E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its intensification trend as it moves Northward across the Northern Philippine Sea...about 1255 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM JUL 31: 18.4N 133.5E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify while moving North to NNE across the North Philippine Sea [2PM AUG 01: 20.7N 134.1E @ 140kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying...starts turning left of its track (NNW) toward the Ryukyus [2PM AUG 02: 23.0N 134.1E @ 150kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...moving more NNW-ward closer to the Ryukyus [2PM AUG 03: 25.7N 132.9E @ 150kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CENTRAL & NORTHERN MINDANAO, VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation still being affected by moderate upper-level winds (Vertical Wind Shear) as it continues to consolidate. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO) has started to form over the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - developing over the center (off the Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" to form underneath soon. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ near-typhoon force winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - moving slowly away from the Pacific Islands of Yap-Ulithi-Palau. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 550 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CENTRAL & NORTHERN MINDANAO, VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 29 JULY POSITION: 13.5N 133.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS TOTALLY OBSCURED BY A COLD
DENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH. THE INITIAL POSTION IS
BASED ON A 290422Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WARM SEMI-CIRCLE
SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS JUST
SOUTH OF A WEAK ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IN A REGION OF MODERATE (25-30
KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SHARP OUTLINES IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT INDICATING
SUBSIDENCE. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST. TS 11W WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER AND AS IT GAINS
LATITUDE, VWS WILL RELAX, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH,
AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE, RESULTING IN STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 72, A BUILDING STR EAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
WILL NUDGE TS 11W LEFT OF TRACK. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
FANS OUT TO APPROXIMATELY 20 DEGREE SPREAD, ALL FAVORING THE
S-SHAPED TRACK DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR THAT
CONTINUES TO BE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND MAINTAINS A
POLEWARD TRAJECTORY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNREALISTIC PULL...(more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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