for Thursday, 28 July 2011 [7:50 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 28 2011):
Now initiating 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 28 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #001/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The Tropical Depression which has been spotted over the Caroline-Western Micronesian Islands over the past few days has finally entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...and was christened MUIFA (KABAYAN) by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). This system has been upgraded into a Tropical Storm as it accelerates Westward into the Philippine Sea.
Residents and visitors along the East Coast of the Philippines should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu July 28 2011
Location of Center: 12.2º N Lat 134.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 530 km (285 nm) NW of Yap, FSM
Distance 2: 950 km (513 nm) ENE of Borongan City
Distance 3: 1030 km (555 nm) ESE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 4: 1085 km (585 nm) ESE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 5: 1100 km (595 nm) ESE of Sorsogon City
Distance 6: 1135 km (613 nm) ESE of Legazpi City
Distance 7: 1190 km (642 nm) ESE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 1440 km (777 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 30 kph (16 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Thu July 28
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue intensifying at a normal rate as it turns WNW to NW-ward within 24 hours, then shall veer northerly across the Northern Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Turns WNW-ward while maintaining its strength over the Philippine Sea...about 975 km East of Catarman, Northern Samar [2AM JUL 29: 12.4N 133.6E @ 75kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Intensifying as it turns to the NW-NNW...about 1020 km East of Legazpi City [2PM JUL 29: 13.1N 133.1E @ 85kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING (FRI): Continues to intensify over the Philippine Sea...moving northerly...about 940 km East of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM JUL 30: 14.1N 132.9E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Nearing typhoon strength as it maintains its northward track...about 945 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2PM JUL 30: 15.2N 132.9E @ 110kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...veers toward the NNE while over the Philippine Sea [2PM JUL 31: 17.7N 133.8E @ 130kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Exits the PAR...still strengthening over the NW Pacific Ocean...turns back towards the North [2PM AUG 01: 21.2N 135.6E @ 140kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to track Northward towards Southern Japan...approaching Category 2 strength [2PM AUG 02: 24.2N 135.6E @ 150kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation has expanded and slightly improved while accelerating Westward into the Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Pacific Islands of Yap-Ulithi-Palau. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 500 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN VISAYAS & WESTERN LUZON including MINDORO. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 28 JULY POSITION: 11.9N 135.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM WEST
OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS EXPANDED AS CONVECTIVE TOPS DEEPENED. INITIAL POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STORM IS 10 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF AN
ANTICYCLONE THAT IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
HOWEVER, A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS PROVIDING EFFICIENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. THESE DYNAMICS ARE EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
TS 11W, CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF A LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED JUST SOUTHEAST OF KYUSHU,
JAPAN. THIS RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO RECEDE AND WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM
TO TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS POLEWARD
MOTION WILL DIMINISH THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ALSO REDUCE THE VWS, FAVORING GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER TAU 36, A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL ASSUME STEERING AND TUG THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF POLEWARD.
AS THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 11W IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A MODERATE TYPHOON BY TAU 96 WHEN A BUILDING STR EAST
OF HONSHU JAPAN ASSUMES STEERING AND PUSHES 11W LEFT OF POLEWARD.
THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN LOOSE AGREEMENT AND FANS OUT
TO A 20 DEGREE SPREAD. ALL, HOWEVER, DEPICT AN S-SHAPE TRACK PATTERN
MOLDED BY THE THREE STEERING INFLUENCES DESCRIBED ABOVE. THERE IS
ONE EXCEPTION: WBAR MAINTAINS A PROLONGED WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BEFORE
TURNING POLEWARD AT TAU 96. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF
CONSENSUS AT THE BEGINING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
PERSISTENT WESTWARD STORM MOTION...(more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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