for Monday, 25 July 2011 [6:15 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Monday July 25 2011):
Now initiating the 3-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight & 3:00 AM) on 10W (JUANING).
10W (JUANING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W [JUANING]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 25 July 2011
Source: T2K Extrap Analysis/JTWC Warning #003/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 10W (JUANING) continues to accelerate, now moving northwestward - just to the east of Catanduanes. Its rainbands spreading across the Bicol Region and Samar Provinces including Southern Quezon. Storm Signal #1 now hoisted across most of Bicol Region (see details below).
Residents and visitors along the Bicol Region & Eastern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of 10W (JUANING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon July 25 2011
Location of Center: 14.0º N Lat 125.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 180 km (97 nm) ENE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 210 km (113 nm) NNE of Catarman, N.Samar
Distance 3: 225 km (122 nm) NE of Sorsogon City
Distance 4: 250 km (135 nm) ENE of Legazpi City
Distance 5: 285 km (155 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 6: 520 km (280 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Isabela-Cagayan Area
CPA [ETA] to Aparri: Wed Afternoon [2-4PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): ... km (... nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 PM PhT Mon July 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* 10W's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs! The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
10W (JUANING) is expected to continue moving NW within the next 2 days, becoming a Tropical Storm (TS) tonight or tomorrow morning. It shall make landfall along the NE part of Cagayan or over Mt. Gonzaga-Escarpada on Wednesday afternoon with forecast wind speeds of 95 km/hr. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (TUE): Upgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while passing to the NE of Catanduanes...about 160 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes [2AM JUL 26: 14.6N 125.6E @ 65kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (TUE): Continues to intensify as it maintains its NW'ly track across the Philippine Sea...about 260 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM JUL 26: 15.8N 124.5E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Still intensifying near Palanan Bay, Isabela...about 170 km East of Ilagan City, Isabela [2AM JUL 27: 17.1N 123.4E @ 85kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Strengthens to a Severe Tropical Storm...making landfall over NE Cagayan or over Mt. Gonzaga...about 55 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM JUL 27: 18.2N 122.2E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 10W (JUANING) is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some additional strengthening will be expected later tonight.
NORTHEASTERN CATANDUANES: About 160 km ENE of Pandan. Catanduanes [ETA: between 1:00 to 3:00 AM PhT Tomorrow].
NORTHEASTERN CAGAYAN: Making landfall in the vicinity of Mount Gonzaga...about 40 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [ETA: between 2:00-4:00 PM PhT Wednesday].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: At near-Typhoon strength...moving away from the Balintang Channel and into the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) [2PM JUL 28: 20.0N 119.6E @ 100kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Moving WNW across the South China Sea...just along the coast of Southern China...weakens due to unfavorable conditions [2PM JUL 29: 22.0N 116.4E @ 75kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipating into an area of Low Pressure over land, after making landfall over Southern China [2PM JUL 30: 23.8N 112.8E @ 35kph].
**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that 10W will continue moving WNW-ward and cross Central & Northern Luzon on Wednesday...making landfall near Casiguran, Aurora - if the strong High Pressure Steering Ridge NE of 10W will not weaken.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
10W's (JUANING) circulation continues to consolidate with most of its rain-bearing convective outer bands along the western & southern portions of the Low-Level Circulation Center (LLCC). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
WESTERN & SOUTHERN RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Bicol Region & Samar Provinces including Southern Quezon. Near-Tropical Depression Conditions w/ light to moderate winds (15-40 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (high) near the center of MA-ON (INENG), especially along the southern & western portions. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 94W (LPA/1005 MB) remains off Micronesia as it tracks WNW & consolidate...likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Its possible center was located near lat 5.2N lon 147.6E...about 960 km SSE of Guam, CNMI...with 1-min maximum sustained winds of 35 kph near the center. The 24-Hr. Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential on this system is now at 90% [High]. View the latest satellite flash loop on this disturbance.
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides.
10W's (JUANING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & THE REST OF VISAYAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 25 JULY POSITION: 13.5N 126.7E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PARTIALLY
EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. TIME LAPSE INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY ANALYSIS REVEALS THE FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO
THE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI ANIMATION WITH A FAIR DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DERIVED FROM A 240153Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING 30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS ALONG THE WEAK NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF
JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ALONG THIS
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AFTERWHICH, IT WILL PROCEED ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION AS THE STEERING RIDGE RECEDES,
EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG AFTER TAU 96. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FANS OUT TO A 30-DEGREE SPREAD WITH
UKMET TO THE LEFT OF AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS FAVORING A
RECEDING STR...(more info)
RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 10W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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