for Saturday, 16 July 2011 [1:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday July 14 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on Typhoon MA-ON (08W).
MA-ON MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 180 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
MAJOR TYPHOON MA-ON [08W/1106]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Sat 16 July 2011
Source: JTWC Warning #019
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MA-ON (08W) now tracking slightly WNW across the warm NW Pacific...maintains its 195 km/hr winds.
Residents and visitors along the southern coast of Japan should closely monitor the progress of MA-ON (08W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Sat July 16 2011
Location of Eye: 21.2º N Lat 138.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 330 km (178 nm) East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 1210 km (653 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 1685 km (910 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 195 kph (105 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 240 kph (130 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
CPA [ETA] to Tokyo: Thu Early AM [12-1AM JST]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 130 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 944 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 1480 km (800 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft (9.1 m)
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Sat July 16
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
MA-ON (08W) is expected to maintain its WNW track within the next 24 hours before turning NW-ward through 48 hours. It shall reach near-Super Typhoon (Category 4) by tomorrow evening (July 17). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (SAT): Resume gaining strength, as it nears the NE corner of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 1065 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8PM JUL 16: 21.9N 137.0E @ 205kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (SUN): Regains Category 4 status...prepares to enter the PAR...about 865 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [8AM JUL 17: 22.9N 135.4E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (SUN): At near-Super Typhoon strength...enters PAR briefly as it turns NW-ward...about 680 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [8PM JUL 17: 24.5N 134.2E @ 230kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Starts to decay as it exits the PAR...about 535 km East of Okinawa, Japan [8AM JUL 18: 26.5N 133.2E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 195 km/hr (105 knots) with higher gusts. MA-ON (08W) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will intensify slowly through the next 12 to 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 305 kilometers (165 nautical miles). MA-ON remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,480 kilometers (800 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3...starts recurving sharply towards the NE as it moves along the Southern Coastline of Japan (Kyushu-Shikoku) [8AM JUL 19: 30.7N 132.5E @ 195kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 2 as it begins Extratropical transition...making landfall along Southern Honshu Area - heading ENE across the coastal areas of Southern Honshu [8AM JUL 20: 33.9N 136.0E @ 175kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Tracking Eastward along the SE Coast of Honshu, Japan...nears Extratropical status [8AM JUL 21: 34.9N 141.7E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MA-ON's (08W) powerful circulation continues to display a 28-km irregular eye w/ strong eyewall convection on all quadrants. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
IRREGULAR EYE (28-KM) - remains over water (Northwestern Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with typhoon force winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) can be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - remains over water...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (30-61 kph) can be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to med rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 130 mm (med-high) near the center of MA-ON (08W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SAT 16 JULY POSITION: 21.1N 138.7E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 885 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
THAT EYEWALL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CYCLE RAPIDLY WITH LARGE
FLUCTUATIONS IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. CURRENT IMAGERY
DEPICTS A 15 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A NEAR-COMPLETE EYEWALL WITH A
BREAK (EVIDENT IN THE 152255Z SSMIS 91H IMAGE) OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. TY 08W REMAINS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TUTT AND CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON THE VISIBLE EYE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
102 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 08W IS CURRENTLY INFLUENCING
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 09W WITH
FUJIWARA CLEARLY INDICATED, HOWEVER, THIS INTERACTION IS LARGELY ONE-
WAY. THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT TD 09W IS AFFECTING THE TRACK OF
TY 08W BEYOND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED, AND ANY INTERACTION
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BASED ON THE RAPIDLY DECAYING TD 09W. OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS, TY 08W APPEARS TO BE TURNING MORE POLEWARD (290
DEGREES) BUT TRACK MOTION IS TROCHOIDAL...(more info)
>> MA-ON, meaning: Horse saddle (name of a peak). Name contributed by: Hong Kong, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MA-ON (08W)...go visit our website @:
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